Trump Media rises to $10 billion market cap, overtaking the value of X, which has several hundred million users

Thanks to a soaring stock price in the final days before the election, the market capitalization of Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) now exceeds X, which is owned by Elon Musk. took a private train in October 2022. At the end of September, TMTG’s stock was at an all-time low of $12.15. Since then, the stock price has risen 345% as Trump’s political chances improved.

Now, TMTG has a market cap of about $10.8 billion, compared to X’s estimated value of $9.4 billion. X’s market value was calculated based on the value of Fidelity’s investment quoted in disclosure forms filed in September.

Much of the trading on TMTG has been separated from its financial performance; instead, shares of TMTG appear to rise and fall with the Trump campaign’s political outlook. The disconnect between stock price and business performance has led TMTG to be called a meme stock. In fact, TMTG’s finances have been hit by hundreds of millions in losses and negligible revenue. In the second quarter of this year, revenue was just $837,000. Through the first half of 2024, the company had a loss of $344 million.

TMTG doesn’t report any user metrics, so it’s hard to know exactly how many people are on Truth Social, but earlier this year the company’s daily active users dropped to just around 76,000according to data from Similarweb. X, meanwhile, has hundreds of millions of users, at least 250 million a day, according to a March count. That said, its exact numbers are also difficult to pin down because X is no longer a publicly traded company.

The conclusion of the election brought a flurry of trading activity for TMTG stock. In mid-October, the stock had its two biggest trading weeks ever, with 472 million shares changing hands during that time. Many of the buyers appear to be momentum traders, eager to jump on the stock’s tear and cash in for themselves. While that’s certainly a legitimate reason to buy any security, it’s not exactly evidence of faith in the underlying fundamentals of the company itself.

Trump and Musk, the owners of Truth Social and X, respectively, may be social media rivals in the tech world, but they are very much allies in the political arena. Musk has been a vocal supporter of Trump throughout the campaign, making regular appearances with him, praising his courage after the two assassination attempts against him and saying the US is “doomed” if Trump loses.

TMTG’s stock rally coincided with a recent rise in expectations for Trump, the presidential candidate. Despite an extremely tight race that appears to be tied, a number of late polls showed Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris. Prediction markets also have Trump as a big favorite. However, the odds on at least one site – Polymarket – may have changed due to the betting activity of just a few people who bet millions of dollars on Trump to win. A major player in France appears to have bet $45 million on Trump winning the election through four separate accounts.

Much of Trump’s personal net worth is tied up in his stake in TMTG. As TMTG’s largest individual shareholder, Trump owns about 57% of the company, worth about $6.1 billion. Trump’s total net worth is somewhere between $7.5 billion and $10 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal.