Thoughts on Colts’ franchise-changing QB decision

On October 30, 2024By Littum

Ten thoughts on Colts‘ developing situation with Anthony Richardson:

1. In a 25-hour span from when the ball kicked off between Colts and the Texans, we’ve had about six different narratives surrounding Richardson and the present and future of the team’s most important position.

The one that’s making everyone lose their minds now is when Colts coach Shane Steichen said Monday afternoon that the team is evaluating everything when asked if Richardson would start Sunday against the Vikings. When pressed, Steichen would not confirm that he has a starting quarterback.

MORE: Colts coach Shane Steichen is not committing to Anthony Richardson as of Sunday

We’re in new territory here. It involves moving parts, with talks ongoing, a loss in Houston that is fresh and a trip to Minnesota that feels daunting with a team’s season in the balance.

2. Let’s start from the beginning:

When the Colts took Richardson with the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft, they did so knowing he would come in with growing pains to match with a 54.7% career college accuracy, as a pro with just 13 college starts and as a human with 20 years of life. They placed a low-probability bet on the most athletic quarterback prospect in NFL history, and it would be a journey to scratch the surface of his otherworldly potential.

GO DEEPER: Chasing Tim Tebow, Idolizing Tom Brady, Fighting Fires: The Making of Colts QB Anthony Richardson

The hope was to get him on the field as early as possible. Steichen said repeatedly that players get better by playing. As soon as Richardson could show he wasn’t overwhelmed by the workload, the speed of the game or the playbook, they would cut him loose.

It took one preseason game to pull the trigger. Since then, they’ve had gaps in the process due to injuries, but the message was always that if he’s healthy, he’ll get better by going through the ups and downs on the field like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen did.

How the Anthony Richardson plan is starting to change

3. This week brought a shift in that mentality for the first time. It’s partly about Richardson, but it’s also bigger than him. It’s about the concept of quarterback development in this world of two-high safeties, with this veteran roster and this developing player and person.

The concession seems to be that what worked for Allen and Hurts might not work for another player. Patrick Mahomes sat for an entire season behind a seasoned veteran, and that became his way to hit the top and grow into a franchise.

“I guess it could go either way, right?” Steichen said. “There’s some guys who throw guys into the fire early and there’s other guys who let them sit back and watch. So obviously playing — like I’ve said before, the more you play, the more you learn that position. But is there sometimes an advantage to sitting back and watching? Yes, of course there is.”

One way worked for him with Hurts and with Justin Herbert. But with so much at stake now, it was time to sit down and assess what is best for Richardson in this tenuous moment.

He knows he won’t come back to it if things work out.

4. So what created the shift? Not only was Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the Texans, but it offers some interesting windows.

On the first three drives against the Texans, Richardson had a typically slow stat line — 2 of 8 — but he played quite well.

He showed crucial reads, consistent footwork and the kind of speed that leads to good ball placement. Drops from Adonai Mitchell (for a touchdown), Tyler Goodson (for a touchdown) and Will Mallory make the box score look one way. But Richardson avoided danger, let it rip and gave his team a chance for big scores. Between the players involved on the receiving end, Michael Pittman Jr.’s lower back problem, Bernhard Raimann stepping on Richardson’s foot to kill a fade route to Alec Pierce and some great plays by the Texas defense, it was just one good moment , when Josh Downs took a pass 69 yards for a touchdown.

Adonai Mitchell can’t reel in Anthony Richardson’s touchdown pass

Adonai Mitchell wasn’t quite able to catch a touchdown pass from Anthony Richardson against the Texans.

Had the Colts connected on three more of those completions, Richardson could have had three passing touchdowns, which would have evened out his day with the incompletions piling up. The Colts could have had a two-score lead, which would have shifted Steichen’s game plan to more of one around Jonathan Taylor — remember, it’s “throw to score, run to win” with him — and avoid the desperation pick at the end of the first half .

We’ll get to all the rest, because one piece of good doesn’t make up for all the bad from Richardson.

But the reality of building around young quarterbacks is that they’re going to make some mistakes that you have to overcome to win. They cannot also overcome the mistakes of their teammates. So by not capitalizing and by not winning, his mistakes would become the story, as they have been for much of his second season.

The interception against the Texans

5. Let’s get to the mistake that is burned into everyone’s mind.

With less than a minute left in the first half, Steichen urged the offense to stay aggressive in a tied game after a Taylor run moved the ball from their own 5 to the 11. The next throw fell incomplete, but he would try it. again with 34 seconds left. He inserted Tyler Goodson into the game to throw.

Richardson checked out of that game, sent Goodson out to throw out empty. He stared down in zone coverage and threw an interception on a hitch route that led to a touchdown and the swing in the loss.

Anthony Richardson throws an interception vs. Texans

Anthony Richardson throws an interception vs. Texans.

This was a young quarterback who took autonomy to change the play but missed the plot. That’s on Steichen and Richardson, but it’s emblematic of the lack of situational awareness that’s hurting Richardson right now. Since the hitch route was so easily covered, he had to throw it away so they could punt and go into halftime tied. There was no real gain in hitting a slant route to the 20-yard line anyway.

6. The next drive is where the discourse would rise.

The Colts drove down into the red zone, only to have a Pittman offensive pass interference wipe out a huge scramble touchdown to Pierce. The next play, Richardson shouldered 318-pound Texans defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi to stumble around and take a 0-yard sack, one of those moments that showed his team a lot.

Anthony Richardson climbs out of a tackle against the Texans

Anthony Richardson rattled away from a 318-pound defensive tackle against the Texans.

“With a lot of other quarterbacks, it could have been 10 sacks (today),” tight end Mo Alie-Cox said.

But then Richardson wanted out of the game for a break.

On 3rd and 23, the moment did nothing to the Colts’ ability to win the game. But it wasn’t a good look for a young player trying to show these older teammates, coaches and managers that he’s in charge.

When a young quarterback doesn’t deliver great performances, he has to base all process parts around those results.

“We had a conversation about it and he knows it’s not the standard he has to play up to and the rest of the team holds him up to,” said center Ryan Kelly, a captain and the team’s longest tenured player . “… He’ll take the criticism for it and rightfully so. It’s a tough look. But he’s always out there and gives it his all for his team.”

Does Richardson’s tap-out come into play?

7. The Colts see this as a learning moment for a 22-year-old instead of something that should cost a player his job. But it fits into a larger conversation about whether he’s grasping the moment and what it takes to make it so.

There’s no debate whether Joe Flacco is better suited: He’s a 17-year veteran and Super Bowl MVP, and Richardson is the youngest starter in the NFL.

But Richardson needs to develop all of those attributes in a positive way to take advantage of the reps he sees on the field.

Is it possible that he could learn something from watching Flacco, and not just because he’s out of harm’s way, but because a standard has been set for what’s required here? That standard can go to many areas such as pre-snap decisions, turnovers, leadership and on-field behavior.

8. It’s a risky idea if the end goal is still to develop Richardson, and I think it is.

These changes do not happen in silos as they affect the dressing rooms and most importantly, the psyche and mental space of the 22-year-old at the center of it all. If the Colts are going to send a message, they need to make sure it’s a positive one and not a crushing blow.

It’s hard to find precedent for this kind of message working.

Our editor, Nat Newell, did the research and found two examples where such a quarterback was benched before regaining his job and finding team success: Alex Smith with the 49ers and Rex Grossman with the Bears. Both were later jettisoned by their teams, so it’s not the best example of finding lasting success.

Then again, everything about the Richardson bet is an outlier: on his completion percentage, on his experience coming in and on his athleticism.

It’s possible this is the latest wrinkle in a mission that still has huge upside, like 65-yard touchdown throws that break tackles from 318-pound defensive linemen.

It’s also emblematic of how rare a bet it all is.

Why Joe Flacco can only start temporarily

9. Richardson has to earn this job and those around him have to do their part as well.

That means owner Jim Irsay will have to refrain from involving himself in this situation as he did in 2022. He hasn’t been as hands-on with the team since health issues developed late last season, and I sense not that he has weighed in on this situation yet.

That means running the offense that the front office built and the coaching staff originally dreamed up for Richardson.

MORE: With Anthony Richardson, the Colts force a backyard passing game designed to fail

That playbook mirrors Steichen’s with the Eagles in 2022 with Hurts running him 11 times a contest as part of a team-wide run-first mentality. The one Steichen has rolled out too often and again on Sunday, with 37 drop-backs and second-half save Jonathan Taylor, looks like it was tailored for a veteran pocket passer like Flacco and not a dual-threat, developing arm.

The Colts can’t switch because of the desire to play that way since that’s not how the Colts roster is built and that would be about playing over players. It undoes the whole reason they drafted this unique player at No. 4 in the first place. That’s unlike a quarterback-driven league.

10. Still, it’s a slim week to start Richardson against a Vikings defense with Brian Flores scheduled to blitz 10 days into a primetime game in one of the loudest road stadiums out there.

Maybe it gives a window for a break.

But if the Colts do make a move, they have to keep it temporary.

Flacco could settle the passing game with completions right now. There’s still a risk with Pittman so elevated that Raimann is potentially out, and any injury to Taylor could cause the run game to disappear without Richardson’s presence.

The cap still feels limited after what happened in Houston.

Flacco’s run with the Browns last year was magical, but it’s worth remembering that it came with a team that was 7-3 without him and had the No. 1 defense, and it ended in a blowout loss in the wild-card round . That’s because the AFC playoffs are still ruled by monster quarterbacks.

If that’s the outcome, Flacco will be 40, Richardson will all but be jettisoned, and the quarterback carousel will be back.

Purgatory is the real nightmare staring down the Colts.

So get ready for a turbulent week. It might just decide the next decade of this franchise.