Colts’ Week 8 QB analysis: We all need a breather

On By Littum

Thank you nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for timely data sources.

For those of you who are new to this, I will post key QB stats each week that rate how well the upcoming opposing QB has performed. Yes, the O-Line, receivers, and play calling affect these numbers, but they are primarily QB targets. I will probably change the charts during the season. The commentary will be short, but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click on diagrams for larger view)

I want to talk about imperfections. I see a lot of coping, excuses and moving the goalposts when it comes to Anthony Richardson’s completion rate. Sure, you can blame receiver drops or play-calling for some of his problems, but that’s really just sweeping the problem under the rug. His completion rate in 2024 is 44.4%. No amount of rationalization will improve this number to an acceptable level.

Let’s just say it. He has a problem completing passes. It wasn’t that difficult there. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad QB, nor does it mean he can’t get better. In a recent article, Chris Shepherd made this point:

“He worked on his reads, found the open man, got his feet right and threw the ball. The problem wasn’t his accuracy, it was that from the time he found his receiver to actually making the throw, it took too long, which allowed the defensive backs to make a jump and break up the passes.”

I rely on completion % above average (cpoe) to measure a QB’s “accuracy”, but that’s really a misnomer. CPOE does not know if a ball was on target or not, nor does it know if it was dropped by a receiver or knocked down on the line, so equating cpoe with accuracy is inaccurate.

But what cpoe does very well is factor in variables like downs, distance, pass depth, etc., to determine what the completion rate of an average QB in those situations would be. Richardson’s 2024 cpoe is -13.9%, worst in the league. Part of that number is inaccuracy, but to Chris’s point, just because his cpoe isn’t getting better doesn’t mean he isn’t getting better. It just means he hasn’t improved to the point where it shows in results.

We know he has a finishing problem. We don’t need to put the blame on other players, coaches or opponents. Maybe he will get better or maybe not. Just keep an eye on his cpoe when it starts to improve and we’ll know he’s turned a corner.

DASHBOARD

(Use the right-left arrows to switch between statistics for the week and the season).

arsr,
etc,
upd,
sg%,
oz%,
per%,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp %,
cpoe,
yak,
yaco,
yup,
scr%,
toe%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
new/d,
1st %,
td%,
to%,
epa/d,
p.s.r

  • The running game was good, but the Colts still went down first for reasons (14th yrsr, 13th ed).
  • Richardson held the ball over 3 seconds on average, which contributed in part to him being pressured all day (10th ttt, 3rd pr%).
  • His average attempt depth was over 15 yards, and because he completed a couple of them, his average completion depth was also quite high (1st adot, 10th yr/c),
  • The downside to the long throws is that you can’t complete many of them (32. cmp%, 32. cpoe).
  • He was the YAC king of the week, but still finished with just 5.7 yards per carry. attempt (1. yac, 31. ypa).
  • Because of all the pressure, the number of attempts given up was high and this week it was mostly sacks (9th aa%, 3rd sck%). He didn’t throw the ball away once (tie 29th ta%).
  • His total yardage efficiency was 4.6 net yards per carry. dropback and it didn’t help move the chains at all (31st ny/d, 30th 1st%).
  • His TD% was poor and turnover rate was worse (22nd td%, 2nd at %)

This was bad. He threw a lot of contested balls and it didn’t turn out well. He ranked 30th in EPA efficiency and 32nd in passing success rate. On the year, he is absolutely in the bottom tier of QBs.

HOW GOOD?

In the first 3 quarters of play, he only had 3 plays that added positive value. He had a decent 4th quarter, but is far too inconsistent to have a successful passing game.

The trend is not good. His numbers have gotten worse.

HOW FAR?

He’s not afraid to throw 20+ yard passes, but I wish he was. Maybe master the 5-10 yards before throwing it out of the stadium?

He has had the deepest attempts and completions almost every week. That’s the only thing he’s consistent with.

TO WHOM?

Downs had 9 targets, and his first catch alone secured him the spot as the yardage leader on the day.

See all the blue dots in the lower right quadrant. This is not the quadrant you want to be in.

HOW ACCURATE?

Before when I said his passing depth was the only consistent thing about his game? I lied. He is also consistently bad at completing passes.

HOW FAST?

His time to pitch jumps around a lot so I can’t get a good read on his style yet. However, I know that 3 seconds is simply too long to hold the ball.

WHERE TO?

Almost 40% of his attempts were over 20 yards. I’m pretty sure he thinks that’s a good thing. I’m also pretty sure it isn’t.