Harris’ lead over Trump is shrinking

On October 30, 2024By Littum

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a nearly tied race, according to a new poll by Reuters/Ipsos out Tuesday.

The survey of 1,150 adults nationwide, including 975 registered voters, conducted over three days ending Sunday, showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 43%. Among those surveyed who appeared most likely to vote, Harris led Trump, 47% to 46%, Reuters reported.

Harris’ one-point lead falls within the poll’s margin of error of about three percentage points.

Harris has led in every Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters since July, when she entered the race to replace President Joe Biden, but the outlet reported that the margin of her lead has shrunk steadily since late September.

“Harris’s marginal lead over Trump may not be enough to win the election, even if it holds until Nov. 5,” Reuters said.

Trump polled better on handling immigration and the economy, and Harris polled better on handling political extremism, though her lead on that issue is also shrinking, according to Reuters.

Things to remember when voting

A poll’s margin of error describes how precisely we can count on the survey results to be representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew has too found that the majority of polls have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, in which Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

National polls usually indicate where candidates stand in the popular vote, but the election is likely to be decided by seven swing states because of the Electoral College system. A recent one Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polling of the swing states also indicates that the candidates are in a tied race.

Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.