Here’s who’s leading the 2024 Trump-Harris presidential race in Nevada

On October 30, 2024By Littum

Upper line

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are essentially tied in the latest survey of likely voters in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where eroding support among Latino voters threatens to hurt Harris’ chances of winning the state in November.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives at a Turning Point Action campaign rally … (+) October 24 in Las Vegas.

Getty Images

Key facts

Trump is up 48%-47% in Nevada, according to a CNN/SSRS poll map out published Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points)

Harris leads 48.8%-48.3% among likely voters, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult map out released Wednesday (margin of error 5 points) – effectively a tied race as the poll’s margin of error is five points.

Meanwhile, Harris trails Trump by one point, 47% to 46%, in one AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4).

Trump has an average advantage of 0.2 points in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll averagewhile an Emerson vote published 10 Oct found Harris leading by one point, 48% to 47% (margin of error 3.2), and a The Wall Street Journal poll (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large advantage of five points.

Nevada — which is the smallest swing state with just six electoral votes — has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be critical to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanics and Latinos make up sore 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among key demographics.

Biden led Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit pollswhile Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll vote of Latino voters.

Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey, which found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris.

Immigration and inflation top the list of Hispanic voter concerns in Nevada, according to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

big number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a Sept. NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key

Trump and Harris are tied in Nevada at Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletinwhile Trump has a small electoral advantage in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, and Harris leads by a small margin in Wisconsin and Michigan. She has a razor-thin edge in the national opinion polls.

Key background

The Harris campaign is making a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Arizona Senate. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other local spots frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

Upper line

Key facts

big number

Key

Key background

Further reading