How high-speed rail would change Ontario and Quebec — if it actually happens

A high-speed rail line connecting Canada’s two largest cities, Montreal and Toronto, has been the stuff of dreams – and political campaigns – for decades.

But with the federal Liberal government poised to announce more detailed plans for the project, that dream is one step closer to reality.

In Ontario, the line would include stops in Peterborough and Ottawa. In Quebec, it would stop in Laval, Trois-Rivières and Quebec City.

“For me, it’s really something that can revolutionize Quebec and Canada,” Stéphane Boyer, the mayor of Laval, just north of Montreal, told Radio-Canada.

“Better connecting cities in a more environmental way is a game changer.”

If it goes ahead, the train could travel up to 300 kilometers per hour – more than double the speed of Via Rail’s current trains. But will it actually happen soon? And what might it look like if it does?

Here are some things to consider.

How would it affect the region?

More than half of Canada’s population lives along the corridor between Quebec City and Windsor, Ont., which some rail advocates hope will eventually be included in the route.

Research from Japan suggests that high-speed rail can help ease housing costs and road congestion by making it easier to live further from urban centres.

Overall, high-speed rail has made “mid-sized cities more attractive,” said Yonah Freemark, a transit researcher at the Urban Institute, a think tank in Washington, DC

For example, Lille, the French city located between Paris and London, experienced a “tremendous expansion in the business district” after the railway line connecting the two centers was completed.

He said cities like Peterborough and Trois-Rivières could see a similar economic benefit, while Quebec City would also likely see more tourists and business activity.

The corridor would be mostly electrified — a low-emissions travel option that could take thousands of cars off the road.

Do we have the population? Look at Italy

The proposed line is comparable to high-speed rail in Italy between Turin and Naples in terms of population served and distance traveled, Freemark said.

“It shows that if you provide very high-speed services with frequent trains and affordable prices, you can get a lot of people to take the trains,” he said.

He said the Italian high-speed corridor is one of many examples around the world that have shifted travelers’ habits away from planes and cars.

Freemark said a rail corridor between Calgary and Edmonton also has potential. It’s a scenario being studied by the federal government.

What about the costs?

Transport Canada has estimated the cost of the high-speed rail link could be as high as $80 billion, although some experts have estimated that figure could rise to $120 billion.

A proposed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco is often cited as a cautionary tale.

It was approved in 2008 for completion in 2020 at a cost of $33 billion. Still not close to being finished, the line has been dubbed “bullet train to nowhere.” The estimated total cost is now estimated at $180 billion.

As it says, Canada lagging far behind other developed countries when it comes to financing rail services.

How fast would it go? And how quickly can it be done?

With a federal election looming, the proposed high-speed line could soon become the responsibility of a new government.

It is expected to take four to five years to design. The money for the project will be allocated once it is done, so it is possible that a future government could change or cancel the project.

If that happens, a high-speed rail line could mean a trip between Montreal and Toronto would take less than three hours, far shorter than the current trip on Via Rail or by car — and in some cases faster than a flight, after taking into account for the trip to the airport and passage through security.

Right now, Via Rail trains run at speeds of 60 to 120 km/h, depending on the rail segment. And its trains share tracks with freight cars, which have the right of way.

“It’s a no-brainer as far as I’m concerned,” John Gradek, a faculty associate professor at McGill University who has a background in aviation and rail service, said of the proposed project.

Currently, there are about 150 flights a day between the cities along the proposed line, he said.

He said the increase in short-haul domestic flights has made airports like Montreal’s more congested, and they now require improvements to reduce car traffic nearby. He suggested that the money should go to railways instead.

“The infrastructure that we will have to invest in, whether it’s roads or whether it’s airports, will be unsustainable when compared to the service we could offer with high-speed rail,” he said.