Who will win the presidential election? What polls predict

On By Littum

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The presidential race polls remain tight as both candidates make their final campaign rounds in the crunch time before the big finish.

Less than two weeks before Election Day, the focus remains on swing states like Arizona, which will likely decide the winner of the 2024 presidential election.

Arizonans’ voting intentions remain among the most politically polarized in the nation, making the state’s 11 electoral votes crucial to securing a victory for either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump.

Down-voted candidates have been holding rallies and targeting different demographics in the final weeks leading up to the election. Both presidential candidates have visited border towns in Arizona and talked about the importance of border security.

The last two months of polls and odds have shown a change in momentum and how close the presidential race has become. But who is more likely to win in Arizona and in the nation?

Here’s what the polls, odds and historians are saying as we head into Election Day on Tuesday, November 5.

Who is leading in the polls in the United States?

Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here was where each candidate stood as of 7 am on October 25, 2024:

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48% to Trump 46.5%. In the past, Harris has led Trump by as many as 4 percentage points, though recent polls show them much closer.
  • 270 towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 0.6% over Trump.
  • real clear polling shows that the odds are even.

More: Is Arizona a swing state in the 2024 presidential election? Here’s what you need to know

Who’s leading the polls in Arizona?

Former President Donald Trump held a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in most Arizona polls released last week, but polls show the race remains deadlocked in the battleground state.

Polls and odds are constantly changing, but here’s where each candidate stood in Arizona at 7 am on October 25, 2024:

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Trump leading Harris in Arizona polls by 1.9% over Harris.
  • 270 towin shows Trump leading the Arizona polls by 1.4% over Harris.
  • real clear polling shows that the odds of winning Arizona are in Trump’s favor with a spread of +1.5.

Historians who have predicted 9 out of 10 elections weigh in

Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, DC. He earned a doctorate from Harvard, specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods.

He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last 10 presidential elections and has confirmed his prediction of which candidate will regain the White House.

This year, he predicts Vice President Kamala Harris will win.

How accurate have election odds or opinion polls been in past presidential elections?

The betting favourite only have lost twice since 1866according to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.

The track record on voting is more challenging since different pollsters asking different varieties of the population can often draw higher margins of error.

According to Pew Researchpublic confidence in polling has suffered due to the 2016 and 2020 presidential election failures.

In both of these general elections, many polls underestimated the strength of the Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

Arizona Republic reporters Stephanie Murray and Zach Bradshaw and USA TODAY Network reporter Maria Francis contributed to this article.