After Biden administration’s repeated promises that a ceasefire is imminent, Middle East war escalates

After months of public optimism about the prospects for a ceasefire, Biden administration officials have lost confidence in the prospect of an end to the war between Israel and Hamas.

“We’re no closer to that now than we were even a week ago,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Wednesday, calling the prospects of completing a deal “daunting.”

“No agreement is realistic,” The The Wall Street Journal. “I’m not sure it will ever work.”

Israelis point the finger Hamas for the killing of six hostages earlier this month, including a U.S. citizen. Arab officials blame Israel for explosive pagers and walkie-talkies and airstrikes aimed at killing Hezbollah fighters, raising the possibility of a multi-front war.

“There is no chance of that happening now,” an Arab official said after the recent campaign against Hezbollah. “Everyone is in a wait-and-see mode, until the elections. The outcome will determine what might happen in the next administration.”

For Biden, a former Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman who ran on his diplomatic chops, a no-deal would be a blow to his legacy. It would mean a presidency limited by an early, chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the false hope that peace — and the return of some 250 hostages taken by Hamas on Oct. 7 — were just around the corner as war erupted in the Middle East.

In addition to the recent attacks on Hezbollah, officials told the Journal another major reason for pessimism: the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel would be forced to release in exchange for being able to bring home the hostages.

Joel Rubin, a former deputy assistant secretary of state, told Fox News Digital he was less pessimistic about the possibility of a deal.

“Nobody walked away from the table. They didn’t say they were done. Qatar and Egypt are still engaging with us in these talks. The three-stage agreed framework is still in place,” he said.

“The problems are with implementation, not with the legal framework,” he said, noting that negotiations remain open over which prisoners will be released, how their safety will be guaranteed and what to do with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

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“These implementation issues keep popping up,” he said. “That’s where you hear Hamas increasing its demands, adding new names, demanding more. And that’s where you hear Israel, you know, calling for the Philadelphia corridor, which has suddenly fallen out of the discussion, right? Both sides want more and more leverage and gains on their side, so the negotiators are getting irritated.”

As the Biden administration continues to seek ways to broker a deal, public comment that for months offered hope is now at odds with some private views that ceasefire efforts are futile.

On July 19, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a ceasefire agreement was within reach.

“I believe we are within 10 yards and moving toward the finish line to get an agreement that will lead to a ceasefire, will allow the hostages to come home and will allow us to have a better path to try to build lasting peace and stability,” Blinken said.

On Aug. 17, President Biden said he was “optimistic” about the possibility of reaching an agreement. “We are closer than we have ever been,” he said, adding that he was sending Blinken to Israel to continue “intensive efforts to get this agreement done.”

On August 19, Blinken said Israel had “accepted the proposal” and the next step would be Hamas’s agreement.

“The next important statement for Hamas is to say yes, and then in the coming days, all the expert negotiators come together to work out a clear understanding on how to implement the agreement,” Blinken told a news conference in Tel Aviv.

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“This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last opportunity to bring the hostages home, to get a ceasefire and to put everyone on a better path to lasting peace and security.”

But the comments came a day after Hamas said it would not agree to the proposal. They opposed Israel taking control of the Rafah and Philadelphia corridors, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for.

Then again on September 2, Biden said the U.S. was “very close” to finalizing a ceasefire agreement that would lead to the release of hostages. Asked why he was optimistic even though other agreements had failed, he said: “Hope dies last.”

Earlier this week, Blinken expressed optimism about a deal, though he warned after the pager blasts that “escalation” risked undoing progress.

“It is imperative that all parties refrain from any actions that could escalate the conflict,” Blinken said at a news conference in Egypt.

He said he was focused on a deal that would bring calm on all fronts, including Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Blinken said 15 of the 18 sections of the deal had been agreed to by all sides.

He blamed the long wait for messages to pass between the parties for the potential for disruption to the talks.

“We have seen that in the meantime, there could be an event, an incident — something that impedes the process, that threatens to slow it down, to stop it, to derail it — and anything of that nature, by definition, is probably not good in terms of achieving the outcome that we want, which is a ceasefire,” Blinken said.

After visiting Egypt, he went to Paris to discuss prospects for an agreement with his European counterparts.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met Wednesday with relatives of the seven remaining American hostages held in the Gaza Strip. The families told Sullivan they had “expressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of concrete progress.”

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On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a televised speech called the pager attacks a “declaration of war” and that attacks on Israel would continue until the war with Gaza ended. Similarly, Israel’s defense minister vowed to continue attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, aiming to halt the group’s rocket and missile attacks so that some 70,000 Israelis living in the northern border region can return home.