Tropical development is expected in the Caribbean Sea this week

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCSC) – The National Hurricane Center is watching four areas for possible developments, one of which could have some impact on weather in the Lowcountry through the end of next week.

A broad area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that forecasters have been monitoring for several days has a 60 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next seven days as of Saturday afternoon. Forecasters expect the low pressure system to form early or middle of next week. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system slowly moves north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

An area of low pressure is likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea next week, with a current 60% chance of formation. Models are predicting this system will move into the Gulf of Mexico late next week. We will continue to monitor the situation. photo:twitter.com/Lr02G7fDWU

— Chris Holtzman (@ChrisHoltzmanWx) September 21, 2024

Initial models show the hurricane moving toward the Gulf Coast states, but it could bring rain primarily to the Lowcountry late next week, said Joey Sovine, a meteorologist with Live 5 First Alert.

If it were to develop into a tropical storm, it would take the name Helene, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic naming list.

A second monitoring area is also days away from forming, according to early forecasts. The National Hurricane Center says a tropical wave is expected to move west off the African coast Sunday or Monday. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form next week as the wave moves west across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

On Saturday, the probability of a wave occurring in the next seven days was 40%.

If the storm were to become a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic list for 2024 would be Isaac.

The National Hurricane Center is watching two areas with medium chances of development over the next seven days. The one closest to the U.S. mainland could become a tropical depression by mid- to late next week and could eventually become a rainstorm for the Lowcountry.(Live 5)

In 2 other areas the chances for development are small

Of the remaining two areas, neither has much chance of development.

The westernmost of the two, more than a thousand miles southwest of the Azores, is the remnant of what was Gordon. Strong upper-level winds cause rainfall to be pushed far to the east.

No development is predicted as it is moving slowly northwest, and the center assesses its chances of development at near zero over the next seven days.

The second area, located in the central Atlantic subtropical zone of the Atlantic Ocean, about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda, is home to a small cluster of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the northeast of its center.

But forecasters say the low is embedded in a very dry environment and is not expected to develop significantly as it moves generally north at 5 to 10 miles per hour. There is only a 10 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next seven days.

None of them currently pose a threat to land.