D’Esposito scandal causes ‘migraine’ for Republicans who want to keep House of Representatives

Monday’s bombshell report alleging infidelity and possible House ethics violations by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., is undermining his re-election chances in a key Long Island district. But it’s not just New York’s 4th Congressional District that’s at stake.

D’Esposito, a former police detective, allegedly hired his longtime fiancée’s daughter and his mistress to work in his district office, jobs that paid taxpayer-funded salaries, The New York Times reported Monday. The freshman legislator already faced a tough reelection battle in a race that political insiders see as uncertain because he is locked in a rematch with Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he defeated by less than 4 points in 2022.

D’Esposito’s district is one of a dozen that President Joe Biden won in 2020 and is a key part of the path to a bipartisan House majority — meaning any slip-up could not only cost him his seat, but Republicans their already slim control of the chamber.

“This could be absolutely transformative and a real boost for the Democratic effort to retake the House. The path back to power runs through New York, and any change in the political winds in any of Biden’s so-called Republican-held districts could shake up the math. And Anthony D’Esposito just got more vulnerable,” said New York Democratic strategist Jon Reinish.

“It’s a moderate suburban district, but infractions like this are frowned upon. So yes, this action alone could change the balance of power.”

The New York Times report sent shockwaves through Washington and Long Island on Monday, just six weeks before Election Day.

Republicans are fighting to defend their 220-212 majority in the House of Representatives — an advantage so painfully narrow that it’s causing GOP leaders persistent headaches as they try to push legislation through the chamber. The 17 Republican-held seats up for grabs this year were won by Biden four years ago, easily equaling the chamber’s current advantage.

Long Island has seen a surge in popularity in recent years as it lurches to the right, culminating in the 2022 election when the Republican Party won a majority that also saw D’Esposito emerge victorious.

But Democrat Tom Suozzi won back one of those Long Island districts in a special election triggered earlier this year by the resignation of scandal-plagued former Republican Rep. George Santos, and Democrats are hoping the energy surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris can lift candidates down the ballot in November — an advantage the party did not have in the 2022 midterm elections.

That makes holding a tight election crucial for the Republican Party, which is wary of moves to increase Democrats’ advantage in 17 districts where a majority could win a majority.

“This is an earthquake for D’Esposito,” said former Rep. Steve Israel, who represented the Long Island district and led House Democrats’ campaigns for two terms. “The fact is, this is a Democratic district that went for Biden, which means if you’re a Republican, you can’t afford to make mistakes, you can’t afford to have scandals, you can’t afford to lose yards. And this particular story sets D’Esposito back significantly.”

“In Trump’s environment, where scandals don’t seem to matter, D’Esposito can survive,” Israel added. But “now he’s spent more money than he wanted to, so (the National Republican Congressional Committee) has to come in and plug the kinks. It’s not a headache, it’s a migraine.”

Republicans who spoke to ABC News argued the scandal was not that damaging, but conceded the news would not help D’Esposito or the party’s prospects in November.

“It certainly hurts to hear that kind of news. It all depends on whether he has a lead,” said New York GOP strategist Tom Doherty, who said he still believes Republicans “will do well” in Nassau County, where part of D’Esposito’s district lies.

“In a close race where there’s a segment that might care or might be concerned about whether someone should be on the payroll or not, that could matter, absolutely,” added one New York GOP strategist. “It could be damaging at the margins, and it depends on how close the race is to see whether that matters or not.”

D’Esposito, in turn, has slammed The New York Times for its reporting — without outright denying the accusations — and his allies have rallied to his side.

“The latest political tabloid garbage being peddled by The New York Times is nothing more than a disgusting, partisan ‘rag’ designed to distract Long Islanders from the Democrats’ failed record on border security, the economy and foreign policy. My personal life has never interfered with my ability to deliver results for New York’s 4th District, and I have held myself to the highest ethical standards of personal conduct,” D’Esposito said Monday.

“It’s a partisan attack that’s not going to surprise anyone, and it’s a tight election cycle in a district that is, is, is very close, but he’s been a very strong advocate for his district. I’ve been there many times. I know people in his district and they are, they are great advocates for him and he is great advocates for them,” added Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., on Tuesday.

Other Republicans said scandals simply mattered less in an era dominated by seemingly historic presidential controversies.

“I don’t think it matters at the polls. Voters understand that real life can be tough,” said New York GOP strategist William O’Reilly, who added that scandals like this one are “definitely” less impactful in the Trump era.

Some Democrats have also expressed concerns, arguing that the story could cause significant damage but that it takes place on ground increasingly favorable to Republicans like D’Esposito.

“The question is, will this seal the deal? The answer is no. Long Island is leaning more red, more Trump. Could this be something that gives Laura Gillen a boost or closes the race? Yes, it could,” said New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who added that concerns about crime could align with D’Esposito’s past as a detective.

Still, voters in D’Esposito’s district turned out for Biden by double digits in 2020, and activists expected rumors of a scandal to spread quickly in the district.

“You have to be able to amplify that, especially among the undecided voters. There’s a significant group of those voters in NY-04. They have the advantage of not really having to spend money on it. The media will take care of it for them. I woke up this morning and my inbox was filled with emails from Democrats and Republicans talking about this news,” Israel said. “It’s going to become his own narrative.”

“This finding certainly won’t help Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives,” he added. “It’s a roadblock.”