Tropical Storm Helene forms in Caribbean, Hurricane Warnings issued across Big Bend

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – (9/24 5:30pm) The National Hurricane Center released an update on Tropical Storm Helene at 5 pm, and the forecast was relatively unchanged.

Helene has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a minimum pressure of 995 mb.

Tropical Storm Helene is located roughly 150 miles south of the western tip of Cuba and moving west/northwest at 12 mph.

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Tropical Storm Helene(WCTV)

The NHC is still forecasting Helene to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday morning near Cancun and rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by Thursday morning in the Gulf of Mexico.

The forecast still shows Helene making landfall Thursday night as a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph in the Big Bend. Could we see changes to the left and right in future cones? Absolutely, so stay weather aware and keep up with our updates. However, models have been consistent in the current forecast.

A Hurricane Warning is now in place for most of our Florida counties (dark red). A Hurricane Watch now extends into South Georgia and near the I-75 corridor (bright pink). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Calhoun and Jackson counties, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in place for Seminole and Miller counties.

Tropical Alerts(WCTV)

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for coastal Franklin, Wakulla, Jefferson and coastal Taylor counties.

Storm Surge Warning(WCTV)

The storm surge forecast has not changed, and we could still see significant storm surge for parts of our coastline, especially to the right of the center. For coastal Franklin County, the NHC is forecasting 5-10 feet of storm surge. For coastal Wakulla, coastal Jefferson and coastal Taylor counties, the current forecast calls for 10-15 feet of storm surge. It is important to note, this does NOT mean every location along the coast will see 10-15 feet of storm surge. However, it means some spots could see storm surge values this high in the worst case scenario.

Storm Surge Forecast(WCTV)

In terms of rainfall, we are tracking a soaking rain across the Big Bend and South Georgia. Because of the fast forward speed of Helene, we are not anticipating widespread, double-digit rainfall totals like we had with Hurricane Debby. However, because of recent rain and saturated ground, flooding will still be a concern for some. We are expecting 4-8″ of rain across the region, with locally higher amounts near the coast. A Flood Watch is in place through Friday morning.

Flood Watch(WCTV)

We could also see a few rotating thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the center of circulation. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our eastern counties (from Perry to Valdosta and points east) in a Level 2 Slight risk of severe weather for Thursday. With the current track, a few spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out, mainly along and east of I-75.

Thursday Severe Weather Outlook(WCTV)

I know this can be information overload, but it is important to understand the different threats. We do not want anyone to panic, but it is important to take this threat seriously and prepare accordingly. Be sure to pay attention to future updates and get your weather information from a reliable sources. Also, check in with your local emergency officials as more information rolls in.

(9/24 5pm) National Hurricane Center places the majority of the Big Bend under Hurricane Warning. See all weather alerts here.

(9/24 3:40pm) Meteorologist Cameron Aaron provided a live update on Tropical Storm Helene during First Alert Daily. You can watch here or in the video below.

(9/24 11am) The 11 am advisory is out from the National Hurricane Center, and we officially have Tropical Storm Helene.

Tropical Storm Helene(WCTV)

Helene is located around 170 miles south/southeast of the western tip of Cuba. The maximum winds are sitting at 45 mph, and the minimum pressure is 1000 mb.

In terms of alerts, we have many to discuss. A Storm Surge Watch is in place for coastal Franklin, coastal Wakulla, coastal Jefferson and coastal Taylor counties.

Storm Surge Alerts(WCTV)

For coastal Franklin, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting 5-10 feet of storm surge. For everyone else in the Storm Surge Watch, the current forecast calls for 10-15 feet of storm surge.

Storm Surge Forecast(WCTV)

A Hurricane Watch is in place for most of the Big Bend. Because of the quick speed of this system, we should see the Hurricane Watch extended into parts of South Georgia. With the current track, hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph) will be possible for most of our region.

Tropical Alerts(WCTV)

Because this system is moving so quickly, rain totals should not be as high as Debby. However, with the saturated ground across our region, flooding will still be an issue for some. We are anticipating 4-8″ of rain for most, with locally higher amounts. A Flood Watch runs through Friday morning for everyone.

The National Hurricane Center officially declared Helene a tropical storm Tuesday.

With the nice weather on Tuesday, now is the time to prepare. Confidence continues to increase that we see a major hurricane make landfall in the Big Bend on Thursday. Remember, don’t panic but be prepared. Listen to your local emergency officials and evacuate if you are told to do so.

We will update this blog as more information rolls in.

(9/23 5pm) As of 5 pm, the National Hurricane Center has Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine around 315 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. It is a “Potential Tropical Cyclone” because it lacks tropical characteristics at this point.

However, the National Hurricane Center is expecting this system to get its act together by Tuesday. The NHC is forecasting Tropical Storm Helene to develop by Tuesday morning with winds of 40 mph.

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5 PM Update(WCTV)

The 5 pm track was slightly shifted to the west. The NHC is forecasting this system to split the difference between Cuba and Cancun as a hurricane early Wednesday. Next, it is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and continue strengthening.

The NHC is now forecasting a low-end Category 3 hurricane by Thursday afternoon in the Gulf of Mexico. Remember, the initial forecast was 110 mph (Category 2). The new update has peak winds at 115 mph, and this increase of five miles per hour qualifies for major hurricane status.

Confidence is increasing that we will see a hurricane make landfall in Florida by Thursday afternoon/evening, but the exact location is still not set in stone. The current cone has landfall in the Big Bend, but this cone can (and likely will) change in the coming days. It is not time to panic or worry, but this is a tropical threat to take seriously.

Go ahead and use the dry, mostly sunny weather on Monday and Tuesday to review your hurricane preparedness plan.

Again, more changes in the future track and intensity are likely, so it is very important to keep up with a reliable source as more data rolls in. We will keep you updated throughout the week. You can download our free WCTV First Alert Weather app for more.

(9/23 4:15pm) Meteorologist Cameron Aaron provided a live update on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine during First Alert Daily. You can watch here.

(9/23 1pm) All eyes are on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the Caribbean. As of 11 am Monday, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting this system to become Tropical Storm Helene on Tuesday.

The current forecast also calls for Helene to strengthen into a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 110 mph by Thursday morning. For context, Category 3 status begins at 111 mph.

The current cone has PTC Nine moving into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning. This will likely be a fast-moving system. The NHC is forecasting this system to make landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast by Thursday evening and we are drying out by Friday morning. Because of the fast motion, that should help keep rainfall totals at a manageable level, but some areas are already very saturated and do not need the rain.

Keep in mind, we are still about three days away from this system moving onshore. During this timeframe, we will likely see more shifts and jumps in our model data for track and intensity.

While a shift of 50-100 miles may not sound significant, it can cause big changes in what you see at your home. If your town or city is near or east of the center, impacts will be greater. If you end up on the western side of the system, impacts will be less.

It can be frustrating, but the final track and intensity are not set in stone. We are expecting more changes in the coming days as more data rolls in. Until then, go ahead and look over your hurricane plan and start preparing for potential impacts. For our region, the worst of the weather looks to be Thursday evening and night.

We will keep you updated throughout the week. Have the free WCTV First Alert Weather app for future updates.

(9/23 11am) With the 11 am advisory, the National Hurricane Center has designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the Caribbean.

The current forecast shows PTC Nine strengthening into a tropical storm by Tuesday morning and a Category 2 Hurricane by Thursday evening.

The current track shows landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast, but there still remains uncertainty in the final track and intensity.

Be sure to stay tuned for future updates.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9(WCTV)

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