Pro picks: Week 4 will feature 5 home underdogs and 3 undefeated underdogs

Pro Picks is a weekly column in which AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his predictions for upcoming games. To see all previous Pro Picks, go here.

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Five home underdogs, a winless favorite and three undefeated underdogs highlight the NFL’s Week 4 schedule.

The Bills, Vikings and Seahawks are among five teams with 3-0 records but are favorites on the road this weekend. The Bengals are 0-3 but are favorites on the road.

Home field advantage is not an advantage for the Giants, Colts, Buccaneers, Panthers and Chargers.

Bookmakers are still trying to get their hands on teams in September, respecting some based on last year’s successes and waiting for others to gain more confidence.

Pro Picks is aiming for its fourth consecutive winning week.

Cincinnati, Carolina

Line: Bengals minus 4

Andy Dalton and the Panthers (1-2) are getting no respect after the veteran quarterback shined in his first start, leading Carolina to its first win. Joe Burrow and the Bengals (0-3) are in disarray. They can’t afford another loss with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Expect Joe Cool to come out swinging.

BEST BET: BENGALS: 27-13

Minnesota in Green Bay

Line: Packers minus 2 1/2

Malik Willis has led the Packers (2-1) to two straight wins without Jordan Love behind the NFL’s best rushing attack, 204 yards per game, and an opportunistic defense. The Vikings (3-0) are coming off back-to-back impressive wins over San Francisco and Houston, and Sam Darnold is flourishing. Minnesota’s defense poses a tough challenge for Willis or Love if he returns from a knee injury. The Vikings are 6-1-2 against the spread in their last nine road games. The Packers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games. Something has to change.

SPECIAL SURPRISE: VIKINGS: 24-23

Dallas at New York Giants

Line: Cowboys minus 5 1/2

Dallas (1-2) can’t stop the run or run the ball. The Cowboys are lucky to face the Giants (1-2) on Thursday night. Daniel Jones has played better this season, but a motivated Micah Parsons should make things difficult for him tonight. The Cowboys have won six straight games in the series, 13 of 14, and beat New York 89-17 last season. Dak Prescott has won his last 12 starts against the Giants.

COWBOYS: 27-17

New Orleans in Atlanta

Line: Falcons minus 2 1/2

Kirk Cousins ​​was one missed call away from leading the Falcons (1-2) to a comeback victory over the two-time defending champion Chiefs. Derek Carr and the Saints (2-1) struggled against Philadelphia after two dominant performances. New Orleans has won five of its last six games in Atlanta. But this is a revitalized Falcons team with Cousins, the playmakers and a stout defense.

FALCONS: 23-20

Los Angeles Rams in Chicago

Line: Bears minus 3

The Bears (1-2) need to run the ball better to help Caleb Williams, and the offensive line needs to protect him. They should succeed against the league’s worst defense. The Rams (1-2) have allowed the most yards (425.7 per game) this season. Matthew Stafford, despite a depleted secondary, should keep Los Angeles close.

BEARS: 23-19

Pittsburgh in Indianapolis

Line: Steelers minus 1 1/2

No team wins more games in old-school football than the Steelers (3-0). They run the ball, have a tenacious defense and Justin Fields makes enough plays without mistakes. The Colts (1-2) could learn a thing or two from Pittsburgh. Anthony Richardson has completed just 49.6 percent of his passes this season and has five interceptions in his last two games. That spells doom against TJ Watt and the Steelers.

STEELERS: 19-16

Denver at New York Jets

Line: Jets minus 7 1/2

Aaron Rodgers is back to playing like a four-time MVP, and the Jets (2-1) appear to be just getting going. This week, he’ll face a stout Broncos defense. Bo Nix is ​​playing his best game yet, despite facing an injury-depleted defense in Tampa Bay. He still hasn’t thrown a TD. The point spread seems too wide, making it New York’s game.

Jet aircraft: 26-13

Philadelphia on Tampa Bay

Line: Eagles minus 2

The Eagles (2-1) could be without starting wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Buccaneers (2-1) are battered on defense without All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., though they hope defensive linemen Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey will return. This is a rematch for Philadelphia after a humiliating loss to Tampa Bay in the wild-card game last season.

EAGLES: 25-20

Jacksonville in Houston

Line: Texans minus 6 1/2

Trevor Lawrence has regressed, and the Jaguars (0-3) are struggling after entering the season with high expectations. C.J. Stroud and the Texans (2-1) are looking to rebound from a disappointing loss. Houston has dominated the series, winning 10 of its last 12 meetings. Jacksonville is desperate enough to stay close, but it’s hard to expect a surprise after a listless effort in Buffalo.

TEXAS: 23-22

Washington in Arizona

Line: Cardinals minus 3 1/2

Kyler Murray could have a big day throwing to Marvin Harrison Jr. against a pass defense that ranks 29th. It would help if the Cardinals (1-2) could run the ball more effectively. Jayden Daniels was impressive for the Commanders (2-1), and this game likely means a little more to offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who coached Arizona. Still, Washington will be tough to win on the road on a short week after a road win on Monday night.

CARDINALS: 26-20

New England in San Francisco

Line: 49ers minus 10 1/2

The Super Bowl hangover is real. The 49ers (1-2) continue to lose stars and games, despite Brock Purdy’s best efforts. They are somehow double-digit favorites against the rested Patriots (1-2). This is another game where the long line makes the home team the favorite to cover the spread.

49ERS: 27-13

Cleveland in Las Vegas

Line: Raiders minus 2

The Browns (1-2) have too much talent to keep losing games. Myles Garrett is playing through injury, and his presence is enough to give Gardner Minshew nightmares.

BROWNS: 22-16

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers

Line: Chiefs minus 7 1/2

Justin Herbert’s status is uncertain because of an ankle injury. The Chargers (2-1) should be competitive with him. Without him, Taylor Heinicke will have to rely on a strong running game. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (3-0) are unbeaten despite inconsistent play. Jim Harbaugh’s first stint with the two-time defending Super Bowl champions is marred by Herbert’s uncertainty and the absence of suspended defensive end Derwin James.

BOSSES: 27-17

Buffalo in Baltimore

Line: Ravens minus 2 1/2

Josh Allen was outstanding, leading the Bills (3-0) to a hot start. The Ravens (1-2) saved their season in Dallas and need Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to get the ball rolling, control the clock and keep Allen and company off the field.

Ravens: 26-23

Tennessee in Miami

Line: Dolphins minus 1

The absence of Tua Tagovailoa has turned the Dolphins (1-2) from a contender to a contender. Whether it’s Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley under center, Miami needs to get the ball to its star-studded roster. The Titans (0-3) are going through growing pains and should provide relief for the Dolphins.

DOLPHINS: 20-17

Seattle in Detroit

Line: Lions minus 3 1/2

Geno Smith and the undefeated Seahawks (3-0) face their toughest challenge yet after beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins. The Lions (2-1) are struggling with injuries on defense, and Jared Goff hasn’t been able to get the passing game on the field. But the running game of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs is capable of carrying the offense until Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the receivers start clicking.

LIONS: 24-22

Last week: Straight up: 9-7. Against the spread: 11-5

Overall: Straight up: 32-16. Against the spread: 28-18-2

Thursday: Head to Head: 2-1. Against the Spread: 2-1.

Monday: Head to head: 2-2. Against the spread: 2-2.

Best bet: Straight up: 2-1. Against the spread: 2-1.

Special Surprise: Straight: 3-0. Against the Spread: 3-0.