Wall Street fears lower-than-expected iPhone demand as shipping times shorten (Video)

It’s been a week since Apple ( AAPL ) launched its iPhone 16, and Wall Street isn’t happy with its early results. This is because the shipping time for the company’s latest smartphones is shorter than in previous years. And while this may be good for consumers, it may also indicate that demand for Apple’s latest smartphones is lower than for their predecessors.

The assumption is that if customers can easily get their hands on the new iPhones, it will mean a relative glut of phones available for purchase compared to last year.

“Typically, at this point in the launch cycle, wait times are at their peak, increasing sequentially and demand remaining stable,” UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday.

“However, the wait time for the high-end 16 models (Pro and Pro Max) in the US was not noticeably longer than the wait time for the high-end 14 and 15 models.”

Morgan Stanley Research’s Erik Woodring made a similar observation in his note to investors, writing that on Tuesday, 11 days after iPhone pre-orders began, iPhone 16 order lead times were still lower than in previous iPhone sales cycles.

Woodring said the average order fulfillment time for the iPhone 16 was 15.2 days compared to an average of 25.7 days for all iPhone 15 models last year and 18 days for the iPhone 14 line, according to from Morgan Stanley control.

Importantly, Woodring pointed out that the iPhone 16 does not appear to be affected by supply constraints that have slowed iPhone shipments in recent years, but added that Apple generally over-increases iPhone numbers ahead of launch.

All in all, Apple’s early iPhone 16 sales prospects seem worrisome. But there are two other issues to consider. First, Apple may have simply been better prepared for iPhone demand this time around, which means it’s able to ship them faster than in previous years.

Second, iPhone customers may simply be holding off on purchasing an iPhone 16 or iPhone 16 Pro because Apple Intelligence isn’t available yet. This year’s flagship feature for iPhone, Apple Intelligence, will launch later this fall, with additional features to be added throughout 2025.

The first batch of features, arriving in October, will include an improved version of Siri, summaries of text messages and other notifications, and word options for rephrasing and summarizing text documents.

Even though the latest iPhones don’t include Apple Intelligence, they’re still great smartphones. Updated cameras and improved photo style options are great additions. Improved battery life and the addition of an action button to the base iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 plus are welcome improvements.

However, with Apple’s promise that Apple Intelligence will fundamentally change what iPhone users can do, consumers may feel that an immediate upgrade isn’t worth the effort and could instead make the switch when Apple Intelligence launches in October.

It’s also worth noting that while the first few weeks of iPhone sales can give a sense of early demand for Apple’s newest smartphones, the holiday season is typically the most important indicator of consumer response to these devices. If sales decline during this period, Apple will really have something to worry about.

Email Daniel Howley at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.

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