Hurricane Helene Made Historic Florida Landfall

Helene made a historic Florida Big Bend landfall.
Potentially catastrophic storm surge accompanied it.
Potentially historic rainfall flooding, damaging winds and some tornadoes will push inland in the Southeast.
Those inland threats will be felt in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.

Hurricane Helene made a historic landfall in Florida’s Big Bend at Category 4 intensity, delivering catastrophic, possibly record storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rainfall.

The fast-moving pace of Helene means its dangers will spread well inland. Life-threatening flash flooding, potential record river flooding, damaging winds and tornadoes are expected in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee.

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Landfall, reports: Helene’s center moved ashore around 11:10 pm EDT Thursday night about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, Florida, with winds of 140 mph, Category 4 intensity, and a pressure of 938 millibars, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Helene is the strongest hurricane on record to landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region, stronger than 2023’s Idalia, which made a Category 3 landfall with 115 mph winds and a pressure of 950 millibars and an 1896 Cedar Keys hurricane’s 125 mph winds.

Helene is also the third hurricane to landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region in just under 13 months. Three of the last five hurricanes to landfall in the mainland US have done so in this Big Bend region.

Storm reports: The eyewall, home to a hurricane’s most intense winds, prompted a rare “extreme wind warning”, a high-end alert only issued for Category 3 or stronger hurricane eyewalls to alert those in the path to take shelter from these damaging winds as if a tornado warning was issued.

Surge flooding in parts of the Tampa Bay area already topped previous modern era records from 2023’s Idalia or earlier. Clearwater Beach reported about 6.7 feet of inundation (above average high tide), easily surpassing its previous record from the March 1993 Superstorm (4.02 feet).

The St. Petersburg gauge – about 6.1 feet of inundation – also crushed its previous modern-era record from 1985’s Hurricane Elena.

Over 8.5 feet of inundation was reported by a gauge at Cedar Key, Florida, much higher than that from Hurricane Idalia in August 2023 (6.84 feet).

Significant flooding was also reported at Ft. Myers Beach and Naples, where gauges measured 4 to 5 feet of surge flooding. According to a ham radio operator, water 5 to 6 feet above normal levels was observed in the Punta Gorda Canal Network.

Helene became the second major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday afternoon. Early in the evening, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum winds had increased Category 4 intensity.

Bands of heavy rain continue to pummel parts of Florida and the Southeast US, prompting occasional flash flood and tornado warnings.

Current Radar And Alerts

(Watches and warnings are issued by NOAA.)

At least one home has been flooded in Burke County, Georgia, and there’s been a report of swift water rescues in northwest North Carolina, according to the NWS-Blacksburg, Virginia, office. Over 70 reports of flash flooding have been received by the National Weather Service since Thursday morning, from Georgia to Virginia.

Winds have been reported to be 98 mph at Perry, 84 mph at Cedar Key and 82 mph at St. Petersburg’s Albert Whitted Airport. Gusts up to 72 mph at Miami’s Opa Locka Airport, 70 mph in Sarasota and 67 mph in Orlando were also recorded.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued tornado watches from Florida to the Carolinas.

Tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 310 miles from the center of Helene at landfall, making it a large hurricane. That large size and its increasing forward speed are the reasons Helene posed such a major storm surge danger at the coast as well as widespread high wind and flooding rain threats well inland.

(The orange circle shows the extent of the system’s tropical-storm-force winds (at least 39 mph). The purple circle indicates the extent of hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph), according to the National Hurricane Center.)

Watches and warnings in effect: A hurricane warning is in effect from Florida’s Big Bend and Nature Coast into middle Georgia, including from Tallahassee to Albany and Macon. Storm surge warnings extend from Mexico Beach southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

As shown in the map below, tropical storm warnings cover almost the entire rest of Florida and Georgia not covered by hurricane warnings, all of South Carolina and much of western North Carolina.

These alerts mean hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge conditions are expected in these areas as Helene moves.

Watches and Warnings

(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. The forecast path of Helene is shown by the gray cone.)

Here is the timeline:

- Friday: Helene will sweep quickly northward through the Southeast toward the southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley with strong, possibly damaging wind gusts, flooding rain and isolated tornadoes.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Current Storm Status And Projected Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

US Impacts

The National Hurricane Center’s storm surge forecast is shown below.

A potentially storm surge was expected along and to the east of where Helene’s center catastrophic moves ashore in Florida’s Big Bend, Apalachee Bay and Nature Coast. Surge flooding 10 to 20 feet above ground level is forecast in these areas. For Cedar Key, that would top a record storm surge set 128 years ago.

Significant storm surge flooding in the Tampa-St. Pete-Sarasota metro areas Hurricane Idaliais expected to slowly subside by Friday morning.

Winds

Helene is a large, strong and fast-moving hurricane. That means its strong winds cover a larger area and will push farther inland than usual.

Hurricane-force winds (74-plus-mph sustained winds) are expected along a stretch of Florida’s Panhandle northward into southern and middle Georgia Thursday night, possibly as far north as the far southern suburbs of the Atlanta metro area. Downed trees and power outages will likely be widespread in these areas, and even some structural damage is possible.

NWS Peak Wind Threat

(This map from the National Weather Service shows the potential strongest winds (likely in gusts) that could occur. Areas in red or purple colors are most probable to see hurricane-force capable of more widespread tree damage, power outages and at least some damage to buildings. Areas in yellow and orange could see at least some sporadic downed trees and power outages.

Tropical-storm-force winds at least in gusts (39 to 73 mph) could then push well inland into much of northern Georgia, eastern Alabama, South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee Thursday night into Friday. Downed trees and power outages are likely in these areas. This includes the Atlanta metro area.

Rainfall

Rainfall from Helene could trigger catastrophic flooding in parts of the Southeast.

That’s because heavy rain already soaked the region on Wednesday ahead of Helene’s arrival from parts of Georgia, including the Atlanta metro area, into the southern Appalachians.

Helene’s bands of heavy rain will fall on those increasingly saturated areas into Friday.

A rare “high risk” flood outlook has been issued by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center from northern Florida into a large part of Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina. This means flooding could be life threatening in these areas.

In the southern Appalachians, this heavy rain in addition to the hilly and mountainous terrain is a prime setup for destructive, life-threatening rainfall flooding and landslides. Major to locally record flooding is possible on some rivers, including the French Broad in western North Carolina near Asheville, where it could rival the historic 1916 flood.

Total rainfall in parts of North Georgia into upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina could reach 20 inches.

If that wasn’t enough, the increasingly soaked ground in the Southeast may also make it easier for Helene’s winds to topple trees.

Elsewhere, a broad area of at least 3 inches of rainfall is expected from Florida to the central Appalachians and westward into Kentucky, Tennessee and parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. At least local flash flooding is possible in these areas.

Additional Rainfall Forecast

(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest additional rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for over a period of a few hours.)

Tornado Threat

Many landfalling hurricanes also produce a tornado threat to the right, or in this case east, of where the center tracks.

Parts of Florida, southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina have the greatest chance of a few tornadoes through early Friday morning.

The chance of a few tornadoes may extend into eastern parts of South and North Carolina and southern Virginia on Friday.

Storm Recap

The need to issue tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches for western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula prompted the NHC to begin advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the western Caribbean Sea on Sept. 23.

The following morning, Tropical Storm Helene formed as bands of rain and strong winds lashed Cancún and Cozumel. Helene also produced heavy rain and some tropical storm force gusts over parts of western Cuba.

Helene then became a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sept. 25, then rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane in the evening before landfall on Sept. 26.