Short rains will start in the third week of October

The Kenya Meteorological Department has announced that brief rainfall is expected between the third and fourth week of this month.

October 2024 weather forecasts indicate that the Highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin, the central and southern Rift Valley, the northwestern Highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), isolated areas in the northern east (parts of Marsabit) and southeastern parts (Machakos and parts of Kajiado) rainfall is likely to be above average this month.

Meanwhile, near-below-average rainfall is expected in the coastal region, most of the south-eastern lowlands and most of the north-eastern zone.

“The short rain season is expected to start between the fourth week of October and the first week of November in the eastern part of the country, while in the central parts of the country, including the third to fourth week of October, Nairobi County,” says KMD.

Depressing rainfall

Overall, rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed over time and space in several parts of the country, according to the Kenya Meteorological Department.

According to weather forecasts for October, November and December, distribution in the western sector is expected to be fair to good, while distribution in the central sector is expected to be poor or fair. Distribution is expected to be poor in the rest of the country

Rainfall is expected to taper off in the first and second week of December, with sporadic showers occurring in late December.

Temperatures are expected to be above average in most parts of the country, except for a few areas in the western sector where both maximum and minimum temperatures will be near normal.

Higher than average temperatures are expected to occur in the central and eastern regions of the country.

Climate projections are based on models developed from the expected evolution of global sea surface temperatures (SST).