Pro picks: London calls the Jets and Vikings, and 6 divisional matchups will be the highlight of week five

Pro Picks is a weekly column in which AP Pro Football writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. To see all the previous Pro picks, go here.

___

The NFL starts its London schedule in week five with matchups in six leagues.

Only the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and the surprising Vikings remain undefeated at 4-0. The underperforming Jaguars are the only team without a win, yet they are the favorites this week.

Four teams were already eliminated close to the quarterfinals of the season. The Cowboys-Steelers rivalry dates back to two Super Bowls in the 1970s.

Pro Picks aims to bounce back after a difficult week against the spread that included three half-point losses.

Atlanta’s Tampa Bay

Line: Falcons minus 1 1/2

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (3-1) are strong on offense, but their defense is still missing All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. and defensive tackle Calijah Kancey. Kirk Cousins ​​still hasn’t found his rhythm with the Falcons (2-2). Atlanta’s offense could benefit from facing a broken defense in a short week. The Falcons have lost six of their last eight games against the Bucs and need a home win if they want to dethrone them in the NFC South.

Arizona in San Francisco

Line: 49ers minus 7 1/2

Brock Purdy and the injury-depleted 49ers (2-2) will host a team they have dominated recently. The Niners have won four in a row in this series by an average margin of 22 points. The Cardinals (1-3) are off to a disappointing start and are 4-8 since Kyler Murray returned from an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury last season.

BEST BET: 49ERS, 30-17

New York Jets vs. Minnesota in London

Line: Vikings minus 2 1/2

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets (2-2) lose to Denver after a terrible offensive. The team must show more discipline after committing 15 penalties, including five false starts. New York’s defense presents a tough challenge for Sam Darnold, who leads the league with 11 passing touchdowns. The Vikings (4-0) gave up 465 yards last week, holding on for a 31-29 victory in Green Bay after building to a 28-0 lead. Perhaps Rodgers will call Jordan Love for tips on how to attack Minnesota’s defense. Rodgers lost his only other match in London two years ago.

SPECIAL UPSET: JETS, 22-19

Baltimore in Cincinnati

Line: Ravens minus 2 1/2

Joe Burrow finally led the Bengals (1-3) to victory last week, just in time for an important AFC North matchup. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens (2-2) turned things around after starting with two losses. Henry, who has 350 rushing yards in Baltimore’s two wins, could have another big day against a defense that is allowing 144.5 yards rushing per game. The Ravens are 4-1 in five games against Cincinnati.

CROWS, 27-23

Buffalo in Houston

Line: Bills minus 1

Josh Allen and the Bills (3-1) lost in Baltimore, but are slight favorites against CJ Stroud and the AFC South-leading Texans (3-1). It seems the oddsmakers aren’t giving DeMeco Ryans enough respect, even though Houston hasn’t played its best football in the first month. Texas receiver Stefon Diggs should be cleared to face his former team, suggesting he won’t miss the four-time Pro Bowler.

ACCOUNTS, 23-21

Karolina in Chicago

Line: Bears minus 4

The Panthers (1-3) will face a team they helped rebuild by trading a slew of assets for the No. 1 pick spent on benched QB Bryce Young. Caleb Williams hasn’t been spectacular for the Bears (2-2), but he got help from D’Andre Swift and the running game last week. They should be successful against a depleted defense that lost linebacker Shaq Thompson for the season and will be without fellow linebacker Josey Jewell this week. Andy Dalton, who started for Chicago in 2021, has improved Carolina’s offense and could help it stay in good shape.

BEARS, 20-17

Cleveland, Washington

Line: Commanders minus 3 1/2

Jayden Daniels was September’s top rookie, leading the Commanders (3-1) to three straight wins while providing a solid presence in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. The Browns (1-3) are back to their old losing ways after making the playoffs last season. Deshaun Watson is having problems, and the defense, despite Myles Garrett’s best efforts, is not dominating like it was in 2023. They must find a way to win or the season will be lost.

BROWN, 22-20

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Line: Jaguars minus 3

It’s not often that an 0-4 team is favored, but the Jaguars have more talent than their record suggests. Questionable coaching decisions and poor execution contributed to the loss of two leads in the second half. Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence and company better figure this out quickly before they head to London for two games. The Colts (2-2) turned to Joe Flacco for the win last week, but Anthony Richardson is expected to return from a hip injury. Jacksonville won the series last season and has won four of five.

JAGUARS, 24-18

Miami, New England

Line: Patriots minus 1

Even without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins (1-3) have more talent than the Patriots (1-3). Coach Mike McDaniel needs to find a way to utilize Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, regardless of who is under center.

DOLPHINS, 20-16

Las Vegas in Denver

Line: Broncos minus 2 1/2

A stingy defense has helped Denver (2-2) to back-to-back wins, while rookie QB Bo Nix’s offense continues to come into its own. The Raiders (2-2) should get Maxx Crosby back this week, which will make life difficult for Nix.

Invaders, 17-16

Green Bay at the Los Angeles Rams

Line: Packers minus 3

Jordan Love’s turnovers – four interceptions in two games – are the only thing that slowed down Green Bay’s offense. The Packers (2-2) will be without wide receiver Christian Watson due to an ankle injury. Injuries have plagued the Rams (1-3), with only the Panthers giving up more points. Green Bay won three straight games in the series.

PACKERS, 27-20

New York Giants in Seattle

Line: Seahawks minus 6

Mike Macdonald’s defense was picked apart by the Lions in Seattle’s toughest test yet. The Giants (1-3) pose an easier challenge. The Seahawks (3-1) will outperform many teams if Geno Smith plays like he did against the Lions. Daniel Jones had a solid performance in New York, which had extra time to prepare for the event.

SEAHAWKS, 25-21

Dallas in Pittsburgh

Line: Steelers minus 2 1/2

After his first loss for Pittsburgh (3-1), Justin Fields doesn’t have to worry about injured Cowboys forwards DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Dallas (2-2) will also be without point guard Brandin Cooks, and Dak Prescott didn’t have much action to help. The Cowboys lead the series 17-16.

STEELERS, 23-22

New Orleans in Kansas City

Line: Chiefs minus 5 1/2

Derek Carr and the Saints (2-2) were unstoppable in the first two weeks. Not anymore. The Chiefs (4-0) continue to win despite losing key players to injuries. They still have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and a strong defense.

BOSS, 20-16

Last week: Straight up: 10-6. Against the Spread: 6-10.

Overall: Outright: 42-22. Against the Spread: 34-28-2.

Thursday: Outright: 3-1. Against the spread: 2-2.

Monday: Immediately: 3-3. Against the Spread: 2-4.

Best bet: Outright: 3-1. Against the spread: 3-1.

Upset special: Right away: 4-0. Against the spread: 4-0.