Score prediction for the hotly anticipated Week 5 showdown

Week 4 wasn’t a good one for the Buffalo Bills (a 35-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens), but the three weeks prior were a dominant performance by a team that many expected heading into the 2024 season. And the Houston Texans had a narrow victory against the undefeated Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Now the Bills head to Houston in a battle of 3-1 teams that could put either team in good stead moving forward.

The Texans’ run defense has allowed opposing defenses to gain 4.7 yards per attempt this season (eighth-worst in the league), meaning the Bills’ offense could take control of the game. James Cook is averaging an impressive 4.5 yards per carry this season, which is something the team should rely on to not only address Houston’s shortcomings, but also to manage the clock and keep the injury-plagued Bills defense as far off the field as possible. The duo of Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs (with the addition of the returning Tank Dell) is dangerous, with both ranking in the top 10 in the league in receptions; However, they will face one of the best cornerback tandems in the league in Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas. Houston has seen Diggs on the court more often this season, but with Dell back in the lineup, both perimeter teams will still have their hands full.

Related: James Cook scores hat trick and makes other bold predictions in Bills vs. Texans

When comparing these teams, the Bills’ ability to run the ball with Cook and, of course, Josh Allen directly impacts the Texans’ weakness. On the other hand, the Texans’ strength on offense is their passing attack; however, the Bills were fantastic in pass defense, limiting the effectiveness of some elite pass rushers due to poor production. Marvin Harrison Jr. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are among the pass catchers who have had poor games against Buffalo’s secondary this season.

This game is shaping up to be really close. The potential for drama is uncertain with the Stefon Diggs situation, yet the Texans seem to view this as a revenge game. Emotions will likely be high on both sides of the ball, but Buffalo will be able to maintain momentum and pace of play based on its ability to run the ball. Given Houston’s weaknesses and Khalil Shakir’s injury, expect a strong attack from Cook, and as we’ve seen in recent weeks, Buffalo is now able to win by relying on its ground game. Bills win, 27-23.

— Enjoy free bill coverage with Buffalo Bills on SI —