A complex storm season is predicted as El Niño fades and La Niña arrives

A complex storm season is predicted as El Niño fades and La Niña arrives

The global climate phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes El Niño and La Niña, has transitioned into a neutral state following the end of the El Niño cycle, said Mai Van Khiem, director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.

According to Khiem, global meteorologists agree that a La Nina phenomenon could develop between July and September with a probability of 65-75%. This weather pattern would continue into the last months of the year and the first months of 2025 with an 80-90% probability.

The director said the emergence of the La Nina phenomenon could further complicate the storm season in the country, especially in the second half of the year, as its arrival coincides with the local storm season.

He cited statistics showing that when a La Nina phenomenon occurs, rainfall often exceeds the average recorded in previous years in the central and southwestern coastal provinces, while it remains below average for many years in the northern, central highlands and southeastern regions.

It is worth noting that there is a risk of heavy rains hitting the central region, especially in the coming autumn months, Khiem warned.

By the end of the year, 10 to 12 tropical storms and depressions are expected to form in the Northeast Sea region, with five to seven of these storms directly affecting Vietnam.

The director warned that heavy rains would continue into the end of the year, especially in the central region, increasing the risk of prolonged flooding, widespread flooding, flash floods and landslides in the area.

However, a senior meteorologist said it was too early to confirm the extreme level of the new weather pattern because storms usually form for a number of different reasons.

In view of the complicated meteorological conditions, he recommended that localities fully prepare for weather events by strengthening areas prone to flash floods and landslides before the season of storms and heavy rains begins to ensure the safety of people.

The director said it is very likely that storms and heavy rains causing flooding in cities will occur more frequently, which will significantly affect socio-economic development and people’s daily lives.