Can we really achieve net zero emissions by 2050? New report shows Australia’s path in more detail than ever before

A zero-carbon approach must “become the new normal” in Australia, according to a long-awaited report from the country’s independent climate advisory body.

The report, released today by the Climate Change Authority, sets out how Australia can achieve its crucial net zero emissions target by 2050.

The government is not trying to solve the puzzle of how to broaden and strengthen Australia’s climate policy package. But it is showing in detail how a low-carbon economy can be achieved. It is calling on Australian governments, businesses and communities to take up the task of decarbonisation. It can help deliver policy ambition to governments and set expectations for investors and the public.

As the report makes clear, a massive national effort is needed. Mature technologies should be rapidly deployed, while emerging technologies continue to develop. Barriers must be overcome and opportunities seized. Net zero emissions should become a priority for businesses, investors and governments.

Paths to net zero emissions

The body’s report is formally known as the sector path review. It was conducted at the request of the federal parliament.

Australia has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero. This report is the most important analysis yet of how the country can achieve this.

The authority’s analysis is comprehensive, detailed and thoroughly researched. It shows how net zero can be achieved through action in Australia, rather than assuming we can cover the shortfall by buying international carbon credits.

It relies on available and achievable technologies, not on unspecified future solutions. As the body clearly states, “Waiting for new, better, cheaper technologies is tantamount to choosing to continue emissions.”

Both points contradict the previous government’s net zero emissions plan and the office’s previous work, and others.

The report uses modelling commissioned by Australia’s science agency, CSIRO. The modelling examined two scenarios, one assuming net zero emissions in 2050 and the other in 2040. It also includes an assessment of possible residual emissions in 2050, obtained from a detailed, separate analysis.

Sector snapshots

The report divides the economy into six sectors, the same approach used in the federal government’s ongoing plan to achieve net zero emissions.

It paints a picture of a modern, prosperous Australian economy at mid-century. In brief, sector by sector:

1. Electricity and electricity

Electricity supply will be decarbonised through the use of wind and solar power combined with energy storage, and then significantly scaled up to electrify the entire economy.

All scenarios assume electricity emissions fall to near zero. This is now considered a near certainty in expert circles. The shift from coal to renewables is already happening rapidly, driven by the closure of old coal-fired power plants and the low cost of solar and wind, supported by policy.

2. Transportation

Decarbonising transport is a story about electric vehicles, more rail and public transport moving away from cars, and the prospect of carbon neutral fuels.

The transition will naturally be gradual, constrained by vehicle turnover rates, infrastructure construction schedules and growing demand for transport. But authorities predict deep cuts into the 2040s.

3. Industry and waste

Reducing emissions in industry relies on electrification and new technologies.

Heavy industry emissions are not falling. But the federal government’s backstop, which targets Australia’s biggest emitters, is starting to work. And low-carbon technologies are developing and maturing.

However, the government’s scenarios show significant remaining emissions from industry. The key is for governments to provide strong commercial incentives to reduce emissions – such as those developed under the backstop – and for industry to avoid building new high-emitting facilities.

4. Agriculture and land

Combined, land and agriculture are projected to fall below zero emissions well before 2050 as vegetation cover and forests expand. This would lead to a carbon sink (CO₂) in vegetation, exceeding other emissions from animal husbandry and crops.

Overall, land-use change and forestry have changed from a large aggregate source of emissions to a “sink” (or carbon sink) over the past 20 years. This accounts for most of the reductions in national emissions over the past two decades.

Continuing and accelerating this trend is a huge opportunity. It will require potentially difficult land-use decisions, such as converting pastures back to natural vegetation. It will also require changing farming practices and new technologies in areas such as reducing livestock emissions.

5. Resources

The authorities believe that the extractive sector, including mining and gas extraction and processing, is on a sustainable path to near-zero emissions, including through the electrification of mining and gas processing and carbon capture and storage.

The analysis does not include emissions from Australia’s fossil fuel exports because these are burned overseas.

Similarly, the contribution Australia can make to decarbonisation elsewhere in the world, through the production and export of renewable, energy-intensive goods and fuels, is not counted towards the net zero emissions target.

6. The built environment

Direct emissions from buildings, mainly from heating, cooling and cooking, can be eliminated through electrification as well as through significantly improved building energy efficiency.

Offsetting remaining emissions to achieve net zero emissions

After every sector has done its part to reduce carbon emissions, achieving net zero emissions will require removing the remaining CO₂ emissions from the atmosphere.

The exact range of CO₂ Removal will become a topic of intense interest in the coming years. One scenario presented by authorities assumes that required annual removal in 2050 will be about 30% of current annual emissions.

The authorities assume that this will be achieved by increasing carbon absorption by land and, to a small extent, by technological means.

Reality may be better than models suggest

The history of emission reduction modelling in Australia shows that the opportunities have been underestimated.

For example, the modelling undertaken for the Garnaut Climate Change Review in 2008 and 2011 underestimated the potential for affordable low-carbon energy and consequently overestimated the costs of abatement.

A review published by the office in 2014 found that without appropriate policies, emissions rose by almost 30% between 2005 and 2030, plateaued under a moderate carbon price, and fell by about 20% under a high carbon price.

The reality turned out to be much better, even though for most of this time domestic climate policy was very limited.

A likely path forward, without difficult political answers

The report provides a credible picture of the pathway to net zero emissions in Australia. The government’s upcoming sector plans and similar exercises by state governments will provide further detail.

The authorities are particularly cautious on policy. They call for every tool in the toolbox to be used, but they largely leave open the question of new policy instruments.

What about carbon pricing – a hot topic at the heart of Australia’s long-standing climate policy issues?

The authorities note that a broad “coherent carbon price” is generally seen as the most effective policy. They do not recommend a comprehensive carbon price, however, citing inherent “political and social challenges.”

Instead, it recommends expanding and strengthening existing mechanisms. These include the Safeguard Mechanism, the Australian Carbon Credit Program, the Federal Vehicle Efficiency Standard, and the Renewable Electricity and Energy Storage Capacity Investment Program.

Notably, this body refrains from proposing new policy approaches specific to particular sectors, such as agriculture.

It makes sense to build on what we have. And incrementalism is often seen as the only viable option, while Australian politics remain divided on climate policy.

But the enormous task and opportunity of the transition to net zero emissions requires comprehensive and, overall, much stronger policy responses.

The report provides a solid foundation for many of the debates to come. The next highly anticipated decision will be Australia’s national emissions target for 2035, on which the body is expected to advise the government later this year.

This article is reprinted from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.