What Will Happen to Migrants and Asylum Seekers If Trump Becomes President? – Documented

Immigration is a major issue in the upcoming presidential election, with particular attention to what President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris do on asylum, especially after the Texas government brought migrants crossing the U.S. border since spring 2022 to Democratic strongholds in Chicago and New York. In New York, about 201,000 asylum seekers have passed through the city since 2022, many of whom were passengers on those Texas-funded buses. An estimated 64,000 migrants are still in New York City’s custody.

As a newsroom serving immigrants in New York City, we asked our Spanish-speaking readers what they were most concerned about in the upcoming election. Fifty-two percent of 170 respondents said they wanted more information about what would happen to asylum. (To learn more about our work with Spanish-speaking readers, visit our WhatsApp community.)

Read also: What a Trump Victory Could Mean for the U.S.-Mexico Border

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Trump falsely claimed that asylum seekers were contributing to a rise in “migrant crime” and promised to restrict asylum and the border. It wouldn’t be the first time Trump has restricted asylum. During his first presidency, he instituted the “Muslim ban,” “Remain in Mexico” policy, and family separation policies, which drastically affected asylum seekers.

What would a second Trump victory mean for the more than 1.5 million asylum seekers in the country and the future of the asylum process?

How Trump Banned Asylum in His First Term

The first Trump administration enacted numerous laws restricting asylum to the United States, including Asylum Cooperation Agreements with the governments of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras that required migrants to seek asylum in those countries rather than the U.S. Other laws included an asylum ban that prevented people from seeking asylum in the U.S. unless they first sought and were denied asylum in a transit country.

Other changes included extending the period during which asylum seekers can apply for a work permit from 150 days to one year and narrowing the groups protected under asylum law, making it harder for victims of domestic violence and gang violence to seek asylum in the U.S.

One of the most controversial policies is the “zero tolerance” policy, also known as family separation, which criminally prosecuted adults who entered the United States illegally, as well as those who sought asylum. At least 4,335 children were separated from their parents because of the policy.

The Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), commonly known as the “Remain in Mexico” policy, was implemented in 2019 to deter asylum seekers from entering the United States by forcing them to wait in Mexico for court hearings. This protocol contradicted decades of asylum law that allowed asylum seekers who presented themselves at the border to wait for court hearings in the United States.

Read also: What is Title 42 and why is it ending?

During the Covid-19 pandemic, Trump has also reinterpreted Title 42 — a public health measure commonly used to stem the introduction of infectious diseases — as a migration deterrent at the border. As Documented has previously reported, this has led to the expulsion of more than 2.8 million people.

If Trump wins again, what implications will that have for asylum?

Brian Manning, a political asylum lawyer and former government asylum official, said a second Trump presidency could have a more drastic impact on asylum than the previous one.

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly falsely claimed an increase in migrant crime, linking it to the arrival of asylum seekers. At a rally in the Bronx in May, Trump emphasized the need for a border wall and increased border security.

“There’s a concern that (the asylum restrictions) will actually be implemented more effectively. He didn’t expect to win last time, and he didn’t have a class of professionals built around him who could actually get anything done in government at all,” Manning said. He added that Trump can now surround himself with people who can push for policies that will hold up in court, as opposed to executive actions that were challenged during the first administration.

Trump’s campaign platform indicated that measures to “stop the invasion” and “close the border” would be implemented on Day 1. Other policies on his agenda that affect asylum seekers include reinstating the travel ban, as well as restoring Title 42 and the Migrant Protections Protocols.

“It’s a safe bet that after the many mistakes made during his first presidency, his administration will be better equipped to learn from the mistakes of the past and more effectively target immigrant communities from the White House,” said Marlene Galaz, director of immigrant rights policy at the New York Immigration Coalition.

What Project 2025 says about asylum

Another possible impact of a second Trump administration on asylum depends on whether Trump agrees to Project 2025, Manning said. Project 2025 is a plan created by a conservative think tank aligned with Trump that spells out what the president should change in his first 180 days in office.

“The immigration issue is pretty serious. There’s talk among the 2025 Project supporters about eliminating work permits for asylum seekers, getting rid of TPS, getting rid of temporary protected status,” Manning said.

Additional anti-asylum measures in Project 2025 include raising the credible fear threshold, limiting funding for non-governmental organizations that help asylum seekers, and codifying asylum bans and third-country transit rules.

“We expect President Trump to use his executive authority to implement these policies — but again, we anticipate that we should be able to challenge them,” said Nils Kinuani, Federal Policy Manager at African Communities Together (ACT). He added that ACT and other partner organizations have successfully challenged Trump policies through lawsuits in the past.

Read also: Credible Fear Interview: A Critical Step in the Asylum Process

Kinuani also explained that if Trump were to push through Congress a policy restricting asylum, which he said is unlikely, it would be harder to challenge. “It’s not impossible, but it becomes harder to challenge. But, again… it’s very unlikely, given the current political climate.”