Life-threatening conditions on the Gulf Coast

This morning, Francine is still a tropical storm with sustained winds of 65 mph — but it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it begins to move northeast toward the Gulf Coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to develop along the Upper Texas coast between 2:00 PM and 8:00 PM EST today, and along the Louisiana coast by 2:00 AM EST tomorrow. Francine is expected to make landfall tomorrow afternoon or evening as a hurricane somewhere along the Louisiana coast.

One update to the forecast from yesterday is a slight shift eastward in the direction of possible landfall, putting Baton Rouge and New Orleans at higher risk for impacts. However, we are in a period where changes in the path are expected — i.e., the windshield effect — so all locations from Lake Charles to New Orleans remain in the crosshairs.

Up to 12 inches of rain and wind gusts exceeding 100 mph are expected across southern Louisiana through tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center has expanded its hurricane and storm surge warning areas as Tropical Storm Francine slowly approaches the Louisiana coast.

A hurricane warning is currently in effect from Sabine Pass on the Louisiana-Texas border to Grand Isle south of New Orleans, covering virtually the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast.

The tropical storm warning area was expanded to include the Louisiana coast east of Grand Isle to include the New Orleans metropolitan area.

Potentially dangerous storm surges are expected from the mouth of the Mississippi River near New Orleans to the Mississippi-Alabama border over the next 36 hours.

New Orleans residents are urged to finish preparing for Tropical Storm Francine by tonight and to seriously consider staying home tomorrow and Thursday. The city is under a tropical storm warning.

City officials told a news conference last night that the storm was likely to become a Category 1 hurricane and could have serious consequences for the city and wider region.

The director of the Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness in New Orleans, Collin Arnold, said, “We believe this is a shelter-in-place storm scenario and that the public should be paying close attention to it.”

Residents in at-risk areas of Louisiana should have a plan in place and be aware of the storm’s dangers, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry said at a news conference late last night.

“We want everyone in the state to be cautious and vigilant. We don’t want to trivialize this event, but we also don’t want people to panic,” he said.

Last night, Landry declared a statewide state of emergency, and 23 local states of emergency have been declared across the state, with more likely to come.

Satellite images from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show Tropical Storm Francine building in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning.

Shoppers in a New Orleans suburb shopped at a grocery store yesterday as Tropical Storm Francine is expected to make landfall in Louisiana.

Before Francine arrives in the U.S., dangerous storm surges of up to 10 feet are a major concern. The Louisiana coast from Cameron to Port Fourchon and Vermilion Bay could experience storm surges of 5 to 10 feet.

“The deepest waters will be along the immediate coast, near and to the east of landfall, where impact will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Additionally, 4 to 8 inches of rain are expected from northeastern Mexico to Mississippi, with some areas receiving as much as 12 inches. There will also be “life-threatening high and low tide conditions,” the NHC said.

Residents of low-lying, coastal areas of Louisiana were strongly advised or ordered to move inland ahead of Francine’s arrival on Wednesday.

Cameron Parish, a coastal community between Lafayette and Houston where the storm is expected to make landfall, is under a mandatory evacuation order starting at 6 a.m. today.

Grand Isle, a Louisiana city located on a narrow strip of land in the Gulf of Mexico, ordered a voluntary evacuation of residents and a mandatory evacuation of camper and motorhome owners.

Meanwhile, authorities in Pass Christian, Mississippi, have strongly recommended the evacuation of the port of Pass Christian.