Superbugs caused by antibiotic resistance could kill 39 million people by 2050: study

Antibiotic resistance has caused one million deaths worldwide each year since 1990, bringing the total to 36 million.

By 2050, the death toll is expected to increase by more than 39 million — three per minute.

This is the conclusion of an extensive study conducted as part of the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) project, a joint venture between the University of Oxford and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

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After analyzing 520 million medical records, the researchers provided future estimates for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories, according to a GRAM press release.

The study results were published on Monday in The Lancet.

What is antimicrobial resistance?

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria and other types of germs become stronger than the drugs given to treat them, creating so-called “superbugs.”

This may make it difficult or impossible to treat infections, according to guidelines from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

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“In modern medicine, the use of antibiotics has allowed us to successfully perform organ transplants, complex surgical procedures and care for extremely premature babies,” Dr. Jasmine Riviere Marcelin, a fellow at the Infectious Diseases Society of America and a professor of infectious diseases at the University of Nebraska, who was not involved in the study, told Fox News Digital.

“These interventions proved effective because antibiotics allowed us to prevent and treat infections in these critically ill patients.”

She warned that antibiotic-resistant bacteria pose a “serious health threat” because they make it impossible to treat or prevent infections.

“Not only will our advances in medicine be at risk, but we could find ourselves back to where we were in the pre-antibiotic era, when mortality from simple skin/soft tissue infections was significant,” Marcelin added.

“We could go back to where we were in the pre-antibiotic era.”

Maureen Tierney, MD, PhD, associate dean for clinical research and public health at Creighton University School of Medicine in Omaha, Nebraska, was also not involved in the study but said it is “the most comprehensive attempt to determine the burden of antimicrobial resistance (in terms of) disability and death.”

“We have made a huge effort, using different data sources from countries around the world, to estimate the number of deaths caused by microorganisms that are resistant to different types of antibiotics,” she told Fox News Digital.

Marking key changes

Since 1990, the most common cause of the increase in disease incidence has been infection with MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus), a type of staphylococcus bacteria that has become resistant to some antibiotics.

The study found that annual deaths from MRSA increased from 57,200 in 1990 to 130,000 in 2021.

Despite the overall increase in mortality related to antimicrobial resistance, deaths among children under 5 years of age halved between 1990 and 2021.

Scientists attribute this to childhood vaccination programs and wider access to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene.

The largest increase was among adults aged 70 years and older, where deaths due to antibiotic resistance increased by more than 80%.

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“Scientists predict that these trends will continue in the coming decades, with the number of AMR deaths among children under 5 years of age expected to halve by 2050 globally and the number of deaths among people aged 70 and older expected to more than double,” the press release reads.

Geographically, deaths increased most in western sub-Saharan Africa, tropical Latin America, affluent North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

Fighting antimicrobial resistance

Next week, world health leaders plan to meet at the UN General Assembly in New York to discuss new strategies to tackle antimicrobial resistance.

Potential interventions include “infection prevention and control measures, such as new vaccines and antimicrobials, as well as improved access to water and sanitation — and greater investment in health systems in diagnostics, training and new technologies,” the release said.

“The single most important way to reduce the incidence of antibiotic resistance is through vaccination against pneumonia, influenza, COVID, measles and other diseases,” Tierney, of Creighton University, told Fox News Digital.

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Tierney also calls for “antibiotic stewardship” – which he defines as “the prudent use of antibiotics in humans, animals, and agriculture” – as well as infection prevention practices, especially in health care settings, and the development of new antibiotics.

“Antibiotics are a shared natural resource that we all must protect.”

While creating new drugs is one way to combat antimicrobial resistance, Marcelin warns that relying solely on drug discovery would be “futile” given the amount of time it takes to develop, test and approve new drugs.

“The number of new or repurposed antibiotics in late-stage clinical trials is very small, and there is no single antibiotic candidate that has been shown to have activity against bacteria that are resistant to all currently available drugs,” she told Fox News Digital.

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“If we can’t easily create new drugs, we can combat resistance by controlling the spread of resistant organisms, which is the principle of infection control.”

To prevent resistance, Marcelin agrees that antibiotics should be prescribed and used “only when indicated, for the optimal duration and at the appropriate time and dosing regimen.”

She added: “Antibiotics are a shared natural resource that we all need to protect so that we can continue to live in a world where we make medical advances and reduce deaths from bacterial infections.”

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Fox News Digital has reached out to GRAM researchers for comment.