After a Hot Start, Recalibrating Expectations

Gerald from Lewiston asks: I’m sure you get a lot of them, but is this good start more about the other teams we’ve played or the Bills themselves? Our two backup linebackers have looked pretty good so far. I suspect they’ll get better as we go along. Have you changed your perspective on the season? Miami is struggling, the Patriots haven’t arrived yet, and the Jets just haven’t impressed. Aaron Rodgers seems to be playing a little scared. What do you think?

Jay: The Bills deserve a lot of credit for their start. The win over Arizona looks more impressive after the Cardinals crushed the Rams in Week 2. The Dolphins certainly played terribly in Week 2, but holding the offense to just 10 points is a big accomplishment. The good news for the Bills is that they may not be at their best either. It’s reasonable to think that with Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard back, the defense could be even better. You have to imagine that offensive coordinator Joe Brady will find ways to get his receivers and tight ends more involved in the passing game, too. The first two weeks probably bumped my prediction from 10-7 to 11-6. The ease of Miami’s victory was glaring, but the Bills’ schedule hasn’t slowed down. The team is on the road for the third straight game after Monday’s home game with Jacksonville. That’s no easy feat for any team. It’s crucial for the Bills to keep those wins going, so while the first two games are promising, they’re just the beginning.

Dave S. asks: Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen Josh Allen and Ja’Marr Chase complain about the new hip drop tackle rule not being called. My question is, when will we see the first flag for a hip drop tackle, and why will it happen when Kansas City is down in the final minute of the game and needs a flag to stay on the court?

Jay: I see what you did, Dave. A few days ago, Pro Football Talk had an interesting post expressing the opinion that referees should never throw a flag for a hip-drop tackle. The stated reason for this belief is “the one thing that is clear and obvious is that there is nothing clear and obvious about when a hip-drop tackle occurred.”

Here’s the NFL’s official wording on what constitutes a hip-drop tackle. “A player commits a foul if he uses the following technique to bring a runner to the ground: 1. grabs the runner with both hands or wraps both arms around the runner; and 2. unloads by rotating and lowering the hips and/or lower body, landing on the runner’s leg and blocking it at or below the knee.”

Exactly what the NFL needed – another rule that can be interpreted in many ways! I agree with PFT – ideally the referees would have just not called the foul. If the league office finds a violation, they can respond with warnings and, if it’s a repeat offender, fines.

Jeff Miller asks: How involved is Sean McDermott in creating the offensive game plan during the week? Total investment, or does he let offensive coordinator Joe Brady create his game plan and then McDermott modify it with him afterward? When does Brady start it and when does he stop? Do any of the assistant coaches start the upcoming game plan before the current game is played? I’m sure he’s as involved in the defensive game plan this season as Bobby Babich.

Jay: McDermott oversees the entire operation—offense, defense, special teams—so he signs off on the game plan for all three, for lack of a better term. I wasn’t invited to the meeting where the coaches lay out the game plan—what are you waiting for, Sean?—but I assume Brady and his staff are the primary planners, and McDermott only gets involved when he feels it’s appropriate. When it comes to advance game planning, the Bills have professional scouts who work on upcoming opponents. During the week, the assistant coaches focus solely on the upcoming game. They don’t have time to look ahead.

Brenda Alesii asks: Week after week, Sunday 1 p.m. games are a distant memory for the Bills. By my count, nine games this season have been either late games or Thursday or Monday games, and the time of the final regular-season game has not yet been set. Can you describe how the staff, players and media are adjusting their schedules to accommodate all of these changes, which are surely taking away any sense of a regular Sunday afternoon rhythm for everyone associated with the team? By the way, I like this schedule because it means the Bills are a good team, they have a lot of attention and national appeal.

Jay: As always, perceptive, Brenda. The good news for the Bills is that they’re used to it at this point. Last year, the team played 14 games, including the postseason, that didn’t start at 1 p.m. on Sunday. The year before, there were nine. So, in reality, 1 p.m. on Sunday has become a time to get used to. Just look at the last two weeks: The coaching staff immediately got to work on a game plan for Miami after Week 1 against Arizona. The team held a practice on Monday. Tuesday was the only real “practice” of the week, followed by another practice on Wednesday before flying to South Florida. After the win over Miami, the players got the weekend off. The coaches likely worked Friday and had the weekend off as well. Preparation for the Jaguars game began Monday with the coaches coming up with a game plan. The players had Tuesday off, then practiced Wednesday and Thursday at a pretty good pace, as they had been off the field for almost a week up until that point. The team went through a walk-through on Friday, then wrapped up the week of practice on Saturday. The final walk-through will take place on Sunday before the Monday night game. After the Jacksonville game, the Bills will have Tuesday off before practicing more of a Wednesday-Friday schedule ahead of their Week 4 game against Baltimore. Starting in Week 2, the Bills will go on a streak of four night games over five weeks. After that, three of the next four games will start at 1 p.m. on Sundays, with the only exception being Seattle’s 4:05 p.m. – 1:05 p.m. PT. This period of normalcy will be welcomed by players, coaches and media.

Ed from Tonawanda asks: Jay, should we be worried about Tyler Bass? His last kick against Miami reminded me of the missed kick against Kansas City. I’m not sure I trust him to kick when we really need him to. Is he on the hot seat?

Jay: Yes, fans should definitely be concerned, nervous… whatever you want to call it Bass. He had a bad summer, and while he started the year strong against Arizona and early against Miami, the miss against the Dolphins was enough to raise concerns. The Bills wouldn’t be working their kickers if they were 100% confident in Bass, no matter what they say publicly. Clearly something is wrong with him right now, but the team is determined to give him as much time as possible to figure it out. For now, the contract extension GM Brandon Beane has given Bass looks like it may have been premature. When kickers lose confidence – and it’s hard to believe Bass hasn’t – it’s sometimes hard to get it back. The Bills are in a tough spot here. Of course, they’d rather Bass figure it out, but if he can’t, they don’t want to figure it out a day too late. If Bass’ spot isn’t hot already, it’s definitely getting hot.

John G asks: With former Canisius High School player Tyrone Wheatley Jr. recently being waived by New England and Qadree Ollison not being signed by any team this year, are there any other NFL players this year who have Western New York ties? Ever since James Starks from Niagara Falls played for Green Bay, I’ve always been interested in the success of high school players from our area. Plus, there are three former UB Bulls players this year and others scattered around the league. To your knowledge, is that the most the Bulls have had in the NFL at one time?

Jay: It’s a lean time for Western New Yorkers in the NFL right now. Isaiah McDuffie, who was a star at Bennett before going to Boston College, is the starting linebacker for the Green Bay Packers. McDuffie, a sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft, has 10 tackles through the first two weeks of the season. Joe Andreessen’s story has seemingly captivated Western New York during the Bills’ preseason. He has a chance to play for the first time Monday, with Bernard sidelined with an injury. Colts defensive end Isaiah Land was born in Buffalo, though he attended high school in Georgia and went to college at Florida A&M before entering the NFL. He has one tackle in the first two games.

Andreessen, Cam Lewis and Ja’Marcus Ingram are the three UB Bulls on the Bills roster. Other UB players currently in the NFL include Khalil Mack, Malcolm Koonce (currently on injured reserve) and Kayode Awosika, Bengals wide receiver Charlie Jones began his college career at UB and continued at Purdue and Iowa, while Patriots wide receiver KJ Osborn played at both UB and Miami (Florida). The Pro Football Reference website lists 33 NFL players who spent at least part of their college careers at UB, so it seems fair to say that’s the most the school has ever had in the NFL at one time.

If I have missed anyone, please let me know at the email address at the bottom of your mailbox.

Jeff from Florida asks: Thankfully Josh Allen injured his left hand and not his right. I don’t trust our backup quarterback even if it was a game, given his performance the last two years in Pittsburgh. What are the odds that Mike White will be moved to the next guy behind Allen?

Jay: At this point, that’s unlikely. The Bills kept Mitchell Trubisky on the active roster after he injured his knee in the preseason, and then opted to carry just two quarterbacks in Week 1. That showed they were committed to him as a backup at this point. The only way that could change is if Trubisky struggles in practice. Now that training camp is over, we can’t watch practices, so it would be hard to say if that was the case. If not, it’s likely Trubisky would have to get into a game — maybe even more than one — and underperform before the Bills would be forced to consider a change. White, for what it’s worth, was a good insurance policy to add to the practice squad, so he provides a decent Plan C for Allen and Trubisky.

John Jarzynski asks: Help settle this argument between my friend and me: I believe the lack of points and passing yards across the league is a result of teams playing in the dreaded “two-deep zone.” My friend Herm insists it’s because of the loss of the Jills. Who’s right?

Jay: I’m scoring this round for you, John. Herm, get in on the action. Thanks for all your questions this week! As a reminder, you can send them to X to @JaySkurski or email [email protected].