Americans living abroad can influence key states

The data shows that Americans living abroad could have an impact on whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins in key battleground states.

The November presidential election is shaping up to be an incredibly close contest, with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia all taking part, making the odds of winning even higher than usual.

Both candidates made massive efforts to campaign in those states, with Trump spending significantly more on ads in Pennsylvania ($132.1 million) than nationwide ($31.2 million) between March 5 and Sept. 7, according to data from campaign tracking firm AdImpact Politics.

However, according to Americans who are not even in this country, the states may be taken over by Newsweek analysis of data from the 2020 Electoral Administration and Voting Survey conducted by the Electoral Assistance Commission.

For example, Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election in Georgia by just 11,779 votes, significantly fewer than the 18,475 votes cast overseas.

The situation was similar in Arizona, where Biden won by just 10,457 votes, while 18,435 votes were counted in the overseas vote.

In Wisconsin, the president won by 20,682 votes, while 13,530 votes cast abroad were counted.

By comparison, Trump won North Carolina by 74,483 votes, with 26,386 votes cast abroad included.

Republicans Overseas, a group representing the interests of Americans living abroad and supporting the Republican Party, said that another example of how “Americans living abroad can influence elections” was George W. Bush’s narrow victory in Florida in 2000.

Although Democratic Vice President Al Gore received 202 more votes in Florida than Bush on Election Day, after absentee ballots cast abroad were counted, Bush received 537 more votes in Florida than Gore and won the presidential election.

After six months, there was some controversy over the legality of the vote counting method. New York Times the investigation found that “questionable votes” were cast.

Gore’s campaign filed for a recount, but the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately stayed the proceedings because there was not enough time to conduct a new recount and meet the certification deadline.

The Uniformed and Absentee Citizens By-Law Voting Act (UOCAVA) was enacted in 1986 and requires states to allow certain citizens to register and vote by mail in federal elections.

Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, said the data shows how much “every vote counts.”

“When a presidential election is decided by a few thousand votes in a few key states, every vote really counts,” he said. Newsweek“While Americans abroad are not a huge voting bloc, these narrow margins in recent years mean they could be a decisive voting group in several very close states.”

Farnsworth added that Trump has an “isolationist approach” that will not appeal to voters abroad.

“Trump’s foreign policy vision may work in parts of the American Midwest, but it will not appeal to many Americans who live, work and study abroad,” he said.

“With Trump as the Republican Party candidate, Democratic activists are likely to see significantly more pro-Democratic votes from Americans abroad than in previous elections.”

Newsweek reached out to Trump’s team via email for comment.

UOCAVA ballots also include votes cast by troops stationed overseas, and the military has historically leaned toward the Republican Party. About six in 10 military veterans said they voted for Trump in 2020, according to AP VoteCast.

Democrats Abroad is the official organization of the Democratic Party for citizens living outside the United States, and unlike its Republican counterpart, it operates as a state party within the Democratic National Committee.

“There is a misconception that Americans abroad are millionaires … when in reality we want to make sure our phone bill is paid,” said Sharon Manitta, a spokeswoman for Democrats Abroad. Newsweek.

“People live all over the world for different reasons — there are those who are married, those who work long-term, there are those who have short-term business contracts — maybe three to five years, and then of course there are different permutations of different students who might be here for a semester or three to four years.”

She added: “When we say every vote counts, this time it really does count.”

Kym Kettler, a spokeswoman for Republicans Overseas, a group that represents the interests of Americans living abroad and supports the Republican Party, said: “Americans living abroad can absolutely influence the outcome of elections, usually in close, close races.”

She told Newsweek: “In 2000, Republican votes from abroad gave George W. Bush victory in Florida and ultimately the presidency of the United States.

Republicans Overseas is urging Americans living abroad to exercise their right to vote and return their ballots as soon as possible, especially if they are registered in one of the nearly two dozen states and territories where ballots must be returned by mail.

“Ultimately, we believe that Americans living abroad — just like Americans living in the United States — vote on financial issues that impact their day-to-day lives,” Kettler said.