See the Volusia-Flagler forecast for Hurricane Helene

Heavy rainfall and the risk of tropical storm conditions are expected in Volusia and Flagler counties through Thursday as a system that will likely become Hurricane Helene continues to move through the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

In anticipation of storm impacts, sandbags have been distributed throughout Volusia County.

Ahead of the predicted tropical storm conditions, rain from the storm’s outer bands will arrive Wednesday. Multiple rounds of rain are expected, especially as the system approaches closest Wednesday night into Thursday, the NWS said.

Locally higher rainfall totals will result from multiple shifts of rain bands over the same locations.

Overall, 1-4 inches of total rain is forecast, with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible. These amounts of rainfall, along with instances of higher precipitation rates, could cause flooding in low-lying and urban areas, the NWS states.

Waterlogging on roads could also lead to hazardous driving conditions. This forecast is subject to any changes in the system’s path, the NWS said.

“In addition to the rain, there will be strong winds and the threat of an isolated tornado,” said Tim Sedlock, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne. “Beach conditions will also be quite dangerous.”

Volusia-Flagler residents should make final preparations now, including securing loose items outside and making sure storm drains are clear, Sedlock said.

“If you have something loose outside, bring it inside,” he said. “If you have concerns about flooding around your home and business, you need to monitor that and make sure you’re taking precautions.”

In addition to strong wind gusts, a few tornadoes are possible in the rain bands, mainly on Thursday as the system moves north.

Along the coast, crashing waves from Wednesday evening into Thursday evening will cause hazardous beach conditions. Approaching dune lines or sea walls could cause some beach erosion, the NWS said.

The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday issued hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge warnings for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast in anticipation of a potential Tropical Cyclone 9 hit.

Hurricane Helene, which is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, could become a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph before making landfall on Thursday, the Hurricane Center said.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Central Florida

The NWS on Tuesday predicted a tropical storm potential for parts of eastern Central Florida on Thursday.

A tropical storm warning was issued for Lake, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties Tuesday morning as the storm was expected to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical storm warning means that sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph may occur in a specific area within 48 hours associated with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.

Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are possible across east-central Florida on Thursday, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out, the NWS said. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are predicted, with some areas seeing as much as 6 inches, which could lead to localized flooding.

More rain means more flood concerns

The additional rainfall follows storms that dumped large amounts of water on the area earlier this month.

Daytona Beach has recorded 11.5 inches of rain through September, according to the NWS, which is about twice the typical rainfall total for that month of 5.24 inches.

In southeast Volusia, the town of Edgewater was flooded with up to seven inches of rain about a week ago and was placed under a flash flood warning. Residents in some areas were inundated with rainwater that overwhelmed the town’s storm drainage system.

Due to the situation, the Edgewater City Council fired Edgewater City Manager Glenn Irby at a special meeting Friday evening.

In West Volusia, the St. Johns River near Astor is expected to remain at moderate flood stage through midweek, before a predicted return to flood stage by the end of the weekend. However, the increasing chance of heavy rains later this week near or above Astor could change that scenario.

According to Flagler County Emergency Management, August rainfall totals in Flagler County (the latest monthly data available) ranged from 3.8 inches at the Emergency Operations Center in Bunnell to 5.02 inches in southwest Palm Coast and 6.21 inches in northeast Palm Coast.

Daytona Beach Weather Radar

What is the path of potential Tropical Cyclone 9?

At 8 a.m. Tuesday, the center of the disturbance was located near 19.2 degrees north latitude and 83.5 degrees west longitude.

The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue into Monday night, followed by faster movement toward the north to north-northeast on Wednesday and Thursday.

According to the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea overnight tonight and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum wind speeds are around 35 mph, with higher gusts.

The system is expected to strengthen over the next few days. The system is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday and continue to gain strength on Thursday as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

According to the Hurricane Center, the probability of hurricane formation is 100% in the next 48 hours and 7 days.