Helene Strengthens, Hurricane Warnings in Florida

Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Florida.
Helen will become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
A hurricane is expected to make landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast Thursday evening.
The hurricane could be both strong and significant when it makes landfall, with potentially life-threatening storm surges, high winds and torrential rains.
Locally strong winds and heavy rain will spread inland across parts of the South through Friday.

Tropical Storm Helene is gaining strength and is expected to become a large and dangerous hurricane before hitting the Florida Gulf Coast Thursday night and then spreading its winds and rain well inland across the southeastern United States.

(MORE: Map tracking)

Current warnings and alerts: Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches and warnings have been issued for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, Florida and other areas of the Southeast.

This means that hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge conditions are either expected (warnings) or possible (watches) in these areas within the next 36 to 48 hours.

People living in alerted areas should implement their hurricane plans and heed the advice of local emergency officials.

Where is he now: Helene became the eighth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season late Tuesday morning and is moving toward Cancun, Mexico.

Helen’s thunderstorms continue to cluster above its center of circulation, a sign of its increasing organization.

Here is the timeline:

- Wednesday:Helene’s center will make its closest approach to Cancun and Cozumel, likely as a hurricane, with the potential for strong winds, flooding, and heavy rain. Bands of heavy rain and strong winds will continue to hit parts of western Cuba. Helene will then enter the southern Gulf of Mexico, intensifying and increasing in size. Large swells and outlying rainbands could reach parts of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle, and tropical moisture intercepting a front could bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of the Tennessee Valley from Georgia to eastern Tennessee.

- THURSDAY:Helene is expected to reach peak intensity in the eastern Gulf and then make landfall somewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast as a major hurricane Thursday night. While computer forecast models suggest the most likely location for landfall is in the Big Bend region of Florida, keep in mind that hurricane impacts (surge, winds, rain) often occur far from the center, especially in larger storms. These track forecasts are still subject to change, so anyone living along and near the Florida Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the forecast for any last-minute changes.

- Friday:Helene will move rapidly northward across the Southeast toward the Southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley with persistent areas of strong wind gusts, local torrential rains, and isolated tornadoes.

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Current storm status and projected track

(The red shaded area indicates the potential track of the tropical cyclone center. It is important to note that the impacts (especially heavy rain, high waves, coastal flooding, winds) of any tropical cyclone typically extend beyond its predicted track.)

How strong could it become: Helene could reach major hurricane intensity in the Gulf before making landfall.

That’s because heat content is a favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows that there’s plenty of deep, warm water in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current. In fact, the Gulf of Mexico’s heat content is at record levels for this time of year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy.

Hélène could therefore intensify rapidly until reaching its maximum intensity on Thursday.

Another factor to consider is wind shear. Wind shear typically limits or weakens tropical storms and hurricanes, either by tilting their circulation or by pushing more storms away from their core.

Lower wind shear should allow Helene to take full advantage of this deep, warm water. Some increase in shear may occur as landfall approaches, but at that point it may not have much impact on an already strong and large hurricane.

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(This map shows areas of not only warm water, but also warm, deep water that is one of the ingredients that fuel developing and active tropical cyclones.)

Impacts in the United States

Helene is forecast to be not only a hurricane, but also a large one and could move faster as it approaches the coast and moves inland. As we discussed in a previous article, this will affect the magnitude and severity of Helene’s impacts.

Storm surge

The National Hurricane Center’s storm surge forecast is shown in the map below. As you can see, much of Florida’s Gulf Coast is expected to see at least some storm surge flooding, including areas as far south as the Florida Keys.

The strongest storm surge is expected along and east of where Helene’s center makes landfall. So far, that appears to be the Big Bend, Apalachee Bay and Florida’s Nature Coast. Some flooding could exceed 10 feet above ground level in these areas, especially if the water level peaks at high tide. For Cedar Key, this could be a record-breaking water level, easily exceeding the peak of Hurricane Idalia in August 2023 (2 meters) by several meters.

Given the large wind farm planned for Helene, significant storm surge flooding is also expected in the Tampa-St. Pete-Sarasota metropolitan areas, which could be higher than what was seen more than a year ago with Hurricane Idalia.

If you live near the coast, know your evacuation zone and heed the advice or orders of local emergency services.

Storm surge forecast

(The combination of dangerous storm surge and tide will cause flooding of normally dry areas near the coast as rising water moves inland from the shoreline.)

Winds

As we’ve discussed before, Helene will be a large, fast-moving storm in the Gulf and then as it moves inland, meaning its strong winds will cover a larger area than usual.

Not only are hurricane-force winds possible along parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast in areas covered by hurricane warnings, but those strong winds could also extend far inland into parts of northern Florida and far southern Georgia Thursday night. Downed trees and power outages could be widespread in those areas, and even some structural damage is possible.

Tropical storm force winds will rapidly spread along the west coast of Florida into northern Florida in the areas listed below Thursday through Thursday night. These tropical storm force winds could then spread well inland across much of Georgia and parts of the Carolinas Thursday night through Friday. Downed trees and power outages are quite possible in these areas.

NWS: Maximum wind threat

(This map from the National Weather Service shows the potentially strongest winds (likely gusts) that could occur. Areas in red or purple are most likely to see hurricane-force winds capable of causing more widespread tree damage, power outages, and at least some building damage. Areas in yellow and orange could see at least some sporadic tree downing and power outages.)

Rainfall

Helene will produce heavy rainfall generally along and to the east of its track, not only near the coast, but well inland as far southeast as the Ohio Valley this weekend.

The heaviest rain is expected Thursday through Friday in parts of the Southeast, but some areas of heavy rain are expected well before Helene on Wednesday in parts of the Southeast, including the Atlanta metro area. And some pockets of localized heavy rain could last through Saturday in parts of the Ohio Valley and Florida.

Rainfall amounts of more than 4 inches are expected from the Florida Gulf Coast to northern Kentucky, West Virginia and Virginia. Some areas could receive up to 12 inches of rain in the Florida Panhandle and southern Appalachians.

These rains could cause flash flooding, especially if combined with storm surges and on higher ground, where landslides are possible. This wet, soggy ground could also make it easier for Helene’s winds to topple trees.

Precipitation forecast

(Although not all of the rainfall shown above is from this tropical system, this should be interpreted as a general overview of where the heaviest rain may fall. Heavier amounts may occur where bands or clusters of thunderstorms stall for a period of a few hours.)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Son, Facebook And Blue sky.