Japan’s shattered ruling party will choose a new leader

Japan’s ruling party will vote for its new leader on Friday after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced last month that he would not seek re-election.

Whoever becomes the new head of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for much of the post-war period, will become prime minister because the party holds a parliamentary majority.

But the elections come at a turbulent time for the LDP, which has been rocked by scandals and internal conflicts that have led to the dissolution of its once-powerful factions.

Nine candidates are on the ballot, the most in LDP history, and the three frontrunners offer very different visions of Japan’s future.

The first is political veteran Shigeru Ishiba (67), a former defense minister who is questioning the LDP leadership for the fifth time. Ishiba’s brazen outspokenness and Prime Minister Kishida’s public criticism – a rarity in Japanese politics – irritated other party members while also resonating with the public.

Also popular is 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, the youngest candidate who, in the eyes of public opinion, offers a fresh face and a promise to reform the LDP. Koizumi is the son of former “maverick” Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and is favored by younger voters and women, although critics say he lacks experience.

Third in line is Sanae Takaichi (63), who is trying to become the first female leader of the LDP and Japan. Takaichi, a close ally of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is one of two women vying for the LDP leadership but is also among the more conservative candidates.

Takaichi’s stance on women’s issues also differs from Koizumi and Ishiba’s.

Koizumi supports legislation allowing women to keep their maiden names, while Ishiba favors allowing female empires – an extremely controversial issue that has been opposed by many LDP members and subsequent governments. Takaichi opposes both positions because they break with tradition.

The winner of Friday’s contest will be determined by an internal party vote, not a public one. But there remains a commitment among leaders to overhaul the troubled LDP in the face of public anger and falling support levels.

“In the upcoming presidential elections, we need to show the public that the Liberal Democratic Party will change,” Prime Minister Kishida said at a press conference last month, announcing his decision not to seek another term.

The LDP leadership contest is not only a race for top positions, but also an attempt to regain public trust, which the party has lost in recent months in the face of economic stagnation, struggling households and a series of political scandals.

The most important of these scandals include revelations about the extent of influence that the controversial Japanese Unification Church wields within the LDP, as well as suspicions that party factions have been underreporting political funding for several years.

The fallout from the political financing scandal led to the dissolution of five of the LDP’s six factions – factions that have long formed the backbone of the party and whose support is typically crucial to winning an LDP leadership election.

However, perhaps more visible in the consciousness of Japanese society are the country’s deepening economic problems.

In the wake of the Covid pandemic, average Japanese families are feeling the pinch, struggling with a weak yen, economic stagnation and food prices rising at their fastest pace in almost half a century.

Meanwhile, data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) show that wages in Japan have remained almost unchanged for 30 years. This prolonged crisis, combined with the highest inflation in 30 years, is tightening the screws on Japanese households and prompting calls for government help.

It also hurts the LDP’s historically favorable standing among voters.

“People are tired of the LDP,” Mieko Nakabayashi, a former opposition MP and professor of political science at Tokyo’s Waseda University, told the BBC. “They are frustrated with the inflation they currently face and the so-called ‘lost 30 years.’ The Japanese currency is low, a lot of imports have become more expensive due to inflation, and many people see this.”

Another important item on the agenda is the issue of Japan’s aging and shrinking population, which is putting pressure on social and health services and posing a real challenge to the country’s medium- and long-term workforce. Whoever takes control of the LDP, and by extension the government, will have to rethink how Japan handles its labor market and whether it should change its attitude toward immigration.

It’s a desperately needed calibration in the run-up to Japan’s general election, which is due in October 2025 – or sooner, as some candidates indicate. Koizumi, for example, announced that the LDP would call a general election soon after the contest.

Experts see the last two weeks of the LDP-led campaign as an audition for the general election. For this reason, candidates present themselves not only to party members but also to the public in an attempt to win over the electorate.

“Society is changing,” Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto who has worked closely with both Abe and Kishida, told the BBC. “It is time for conservative politics in this country to adapt to the new political environment and political battlefield.”

Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (71), the second candidate, is also running for the position of LDP leader; Digital Transformation Minister Taro Kono, 61; Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63; Toshimitsu Motegi, 68, secretary general of the LDP; Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, former Minister of Economic Security; and Katsunobu Kato, 68, former chief cabinet secretary.

Four of the nine were foreign ministers; three as defense minister.

The results of the party leadership competition will be announced on Friday, the same day as the vote. In the first round of voting, LDP lawmakers will cast 368 votes, followed by another 368 votes, which will represent the party’s membership base of about 1.1 million.

If no one obtains a majority, there will be a runoff between the two best candidates. The final winner will then be announced as prime minister by parliament, which is expected to take place in early October.