Is there a Hoosier “silent majority” on abortion rights?

Brian Howey
| Columnist

In the upcoming elections, voters in 10 states will decide on the legality of abortion. Three of those states – Arizona, Nevada and potentially Florida – are so-called presidential battleground states. There are two citizen-initiated ballot questions in Nebraska that either support or deny abortion rights.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court in its June 2022 Dobbs decision ruled that the issue should be decided by voters in their states, Ohio (56.7% of the vote), California (66.8%), Kansas (66.8%) passed referendums guaranteeing abortion rights (58.9%), Kentucky (52.3%), Michigan (56.6%), Montana (52.5%), and Vermont (76.7%). Of these states, Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and Montana were strong Republican strongholds.

Hoosier voters will not have the opportunity to vote for such a referendum. While the states mentioned above have procedures for citizen referendums, Indiana does not. Only the General Assembly can approve a referendum. However, since 2011, the General Assembly has used gerrymandered maps, which guarantee an unequal GOP majority. It has maintained super-majority status since 2014 (which is unprecedented in the state’s two centuries of existence), even though Democratic statehouse candidates have traditionally won about 45% of the total vote.

In the 2023 Ball State Bowen Center Hoosier Survey, when asked “Do you think abortion should be…”, 31.3% of respondents answered “legal in most cases” and 27.8% answered “legal in all cases.” This means that over 59% believe in some type of access to abortion. Meanwhile, 27.2% answered “illegal in most cases” and 10.3% answered “illegal in all cases.”

If Hoosiers want to vote on abortion, they will have to use the governor’s race to do so. Democrat Jennifer McCormick will face Republican Mike Braun and Libertarian Donald Rainwater.

“It’s true,” McCormick told me last May. “A vote for me is a vote for this purpose. There is a clear difference. I intend to fight to restore these rights under every branch of government I can, working in a bipartisan way, using our committees, our board and our agencies. “And I know what everyone is afraid of – that (Republicans) won’t restore these laws and take them further.”

In an NBC poll released last weekend, getting young women to the polls was considered the most important issue by just 6%. But as NBC analyst Steve Kornacke said Monday, abortion was a major factor in a series of special congressional and legislative elections that were dominated by Democrats earlier this year.

“It disproportionately attracted Democrats to the polls,” Kornacke said. “That’s the main, main variable.”

McCormick’s campaign involves airing a TV ad on networks and cable channels attacking Braun’s positions on abortion and in vitro fertilization. It features Braun “in his own words” taking positions on abortion and in vitro fertilization during debates and television interviews.

“When it comes to issues like abortion, I think it’s clear to defer it to the states,” Braun says in the ad. There is a short clip where a news anchor says, “Indiana is the first state to ban most abortions.” Braun is seen saying, “I think our state government did the right thing.”

Then-moderator of NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Chuck Todd, asks Braun in a 2022 interview if he would “criminalize abortion.” Braun replies, “I feel completely comfortable doing it.” Braun says of IVF: “There’s no reason to take it because no one is trying to take it away.”

Kelly Wittman, McCormick’s campaign manager, declined to say the size of the media buy or whether the ad ran statewide. “The ad came out last week and obviously people are seeing it,” Wittman told Howey Politics on Tuesday. “It’s important for voters to know Braun’s position, and this ad shows, in his own words, exactly where he stands.”

Braun’s campaign has not commented on the situation.

In 2022, Braun appeared on NBC’s “Meet the Press” where moderator Chuck Todd pressed him on policies regarding reproductive rights or restrictions.

“When it comes to issues like this, let’s divide our country in such a way that we never get 60 votes on any of these issues. “I think the practical solution is if it doesn’t get calculated, it’s returned to the states,” Braun said.

Todd asked Braun: How would you enforce an abortion ban?

“You leave it to the individual states,” Braun replied. “You can find the right mix. I’m not saying we did it in Indiana. Things are not good in New York. Maybe you’ll find a middle ground.”

Todd asked Braun, are you criminalizing abortion?

“I feel completely comfortable doing it, but not to the level where everyone has to live with the same thing,” Braun said. “When you talk about criminalizing it, all you do is take it to a logical extreme that you will never get to anyway. We just need to remove it from its current state and send it back to the states. find the right way to deal with it.”

In the 1970s, President Richard Nixon sought and found support from the so-called “silent majority.” This fall, it’s Vice President Kamala Harris and anti-election Democrats like McCormick who hope a similar force of young female voters will make their voices heard on the issue.

Howey is a senior reporter and columnist for State Affairs/Howey Politics in Indiana. Find him on X @hwypol.