The new LDP leader faces a key challenge

The newly elected leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party faces a key task: building stable foundations ahead of the upcoming general elections following the dissolution of the House of Representatives.

To succeed, Shigeru Ishiba – who is expected to become Japan’s next prime minister after Friday’s victory in the LDP race – must unite the party and restore its reputation, which has been tarnished by a series of “monetary and political” scandals, experts say.

Ishiba, 67, a former defense minister and former secretary general of the LDP, defeated 63-year-old Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi by a 215-194 vote.

Ishiba’s victory is attributed to the belief that his more stable image will appeal more to voters as the “face of the election” compared to the far-right Takaichi, said Kazuyuki Hamada, a scholar of international political economy and former deputy foreign minister of Japan’s parliament.

“To solve the problem of the so-called dark money, the only solution is to insist on thorough disclosure, including a review of the Political Funds Control Act, to ensure there are no unexplained funds,” Hamada said.

Shigeaki Koga, a political analyst and former official at Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, said that despite Ishiba’s election as LDP president, his support within the party remains relatively weak. Therefore, his most urgent task is to unite the various factions of the party.

At a press conference held after Friday’s elections, Ishiba said he intended to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for a general election after engaging in debates with opposition parties in the Diet, Japan’s legislative body.

“To prepare for the upcoming general elections, which will be his top priority, Ishiba must avoid deepening divisions within the party,” Koga said.

Ishiba has previously indicated that he may reopen investigations into various scandals within the LDP. Koga said that with the general election approaching, he may take a public stance on revisiting past controversies in order to gain voters’ trust. He might even withhold support for LDP members who have faced heavy criticism on issues such as slush funds.

Maintaining unity

Koga, however, warned that if Ishiba implements too strict a policy after the election, it could increase resentment within the party, complicating efforts to maintain unity. To avoid this, he may avoid taking too harsh actions.

Takakage Fujita, secretary general of the Association for Inheriting and Propagating the Murayama Statement, a Japanese citizens’ group, said addressing the issue of illicit funds and tax evasion is the most pressing challenge facing the LDP.

However, he said the LDP is highly resistant to implementing political reforms and opposing money-driven corruption. Although Ishiba is expected to become Japan’s 102nd prime minister when the Diet convenes for Tuesday’s special session, Fujita said he believes the substantive and significant reforms the public expects are unlikely to be implemented.

On the economic front, Ishiba proposed to address the challenges by raising the minimum wage and shifting attention away from policies that favor large corporations to prioritizing support for small businesses and ordinary citizens.

“However, given Japan’s severe public debt, Ishiba is unlikely to adopt a broad policy of massive financial handouts,” Koga said. Ishiba is expected to focus on specific areas to ensure financial aid reaches those who really need it.

Kumiko Haba, a professor emeritus at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo, expressed hope that Ishiba would follow through on his promise to raise the average national minimum wage to 1,500 yen ($10.55) an hour.

“However, in Japan, wage increases often lead to higher prices, so I doubt people’s lives will significantly improve under Ishiba’s leadership,” Haba said.

Additionally, Ishiba did not address key issues such as improving social security or creating a more child-friendly society, suggesting he may oppose the idea of ​​big government expanding social security, she added.

Noriyuki Kawamura, professor emeritus at Nagoya University of Foreign Studies, said Ishiba could implement measures to stem price increases and raise the minimum wage to support the elderly and low-income earners.

Ishiba also indicated plans to overhaul the tax system, including potentially increasing corporate taxes and taxes on high-income earners. Kawamura, however, said opposition from business circles, especially large corporations, could discourage Ishiba from fully implementing these changes.