What Tory leadership candidates should learn from the mistakes of Boris Johnson and Silvio Berlusconi

The Conservative Party is electing a new leader, with four candidates left in the race: Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat. Each of them advocates for a party in dire need of new direction, and the road ahead is far from clear.

Our recent research shows that candidates could learn a lot in the coming weeks from two party leaders who have had phenomenal success in the recent past, but probably more in terms of what not to do.

We looked at Silvio Berlusconi, who served three times as Prime Minister of Italy from 1994 to 2011, and Boris Johnson, for short as Prime Minister of Great Britain from 2019 to 2022. Both were extraordinary politicians, media-driven leaders who dominated with a combination of the three P’s: personalization, efficiency and populism.

As political celebrities, they used and manipulated the media to create endless controversy (which was much easier for Berlusconi because he owned so much of it). It turned out that their approach paid off at the ballot box. Berlusconi won three elections and transformed Italian politics, and Johnson won the largest Conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher.

Yet despite all their apparent power and opportunity, Berlusconi and Johnson have failed to bring about lasting change. Both promised national rebirth, whether it was a “new Italian miracle” or a “leveling up.” They left office leaving behind little more than a series of unfulfilled promises.

Each of the four remaining Tory candidates showed signs of the three Ps. With a selection of party members at their disposal, each of them tried to appeal to the populist right on immigration and relations with Europe. Badenoch and Jenrick have created personalized appeals based, somewhat bizarrely, on fabricated working-class credentials. Because the contest doesn’t get much attention, candidates try to squeeze into the news program in hopes of making an impact.

This path could make things worse for conservatives. Johnson and Berlusconi used the media to feign spontaneity and gaffe-prone, appearing authentic and anti-establishment. They hung zip lines, insulted minority groups, and reveled in the controversy and shock they caused.

Their media obsession turned their rule into an endless series of headline-making stunts. Johnson drove a tractor into a Styrofoam wall to show he would get Brexit done. Berlusconi personally signed the contract with the Italians on live television, presenting a five-point manifesto and promising to resign if he achieved less than four (reader, he did not achieve them and did not resign).

The problem is that the media spectacle has replaced actually doing anything. Announcements replaced rules and words replaced actions. The situation was made worse by crises, Berlusconi’s big crash in 2008 and Johnson’s Covid in 2020. Both events required seriousness, attention to detail and decisiveness from leaders, the opposite of what Berlusconi and Johnson had to offer.

The Tory contest has so far been a rather unedifying scrap for the party’s remnants, equally strong in terms of positioning and headlines. Familiar right-wing touchstones such as the culture wars, immigration and Brexit show that candidates are still fighting the last election and not engaging with new policies. They focused on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), not on the cost of living.

Badenoch recently said that “real politics and real leadership is leading the way and getting others to follow you,” but she did so by expressing strong support for Elon Musk, which puts her at odds with both public opinion and her membership party. It’s hard to imagine that her recent comments about maternity leave being too generous could win her public support.

Are there any pure skinned people in the building?

Personality politics often proves to be a double-edged sword. When a politician puts himself in the spotlight, he attracts all the attention. But this inevitably means calling attention to all transgressions as well as all triumphs.

Berlusconi came to power in 1994 amid a string of controversies behind him. In fact, he was said to be seeking political office, as Trump will do in 2024, largely to avoid prison.

The Berlusconi scandals quickly escalated, revealing a toxic mix of personal, political and financial impropriety that has its own very long Wikipedia page describing (deep breath) “trials and allegations of abuse of office, bribery and corruption of police officers, judges and politicians, collusion, defamation , embezzlement, extortion, false accounting, mafia, money laundering, perjury, tax fraud.”

Johnson has also sparked a number of controversies in Downing Street, including over his personal life and how he finances his lifestyle, as well as Partygate.

Once in power, questions, inquiries and integrity inquiries swirled around their prime ministers and slowly came to dominate. Their popularity and polls plummeted with each grim revelation, causing loyal followers to distance themselves from the chaos.

It appears that the Conservative candidates have not heeded this lesson. Everyone tried to personalize their leadership competencies. This has only served to draw attention to scandals, from Jenrick’s questionable housing deals to Cleverly’s offensive comments about sexual assault. It’s unclear whether Cleverly’s admission that he talks too much, intended to excuse what he said, is really a useful trait for a future party leader.

The four candidates appear to be avoiding any reflection on the causes of the Conservatives’ disastrous defeat in the July elections. There are many indications that either of them realizes the need to create a credible and united opposition party on the way to the center.

Berlusconi and Johnson started in much stronger positions than these four, but even they soon discovered that their coalitions – both of voters outside parliament and of MPs within it – were too fragile to sustain. Increasingly restive partners and supporters were losing faith in both leaders over their corruption and inaction as the weak electoral alliances that supported them came under pressure.

Whoever inherits the Conservative leadership must have plenty of allies despite the many divisions that divide the defeated party. Johnson, and then Liz Truss, had rather shallow support and soon discovered that unhappy parties could be disloyal and quick to rebel.