Dodgers vs. game preview Padres 2024 NLDS: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres resume their rivalry in a highly anticipated National League Division Series matchup. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in Los Angeles and features plenty of storylines, including Shohei Ohtani’s postseason debut. The team remaining from this NL West clash will advance to the NLCS to face the winner of the NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers or New York Mets.

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Game times

Game 1: Padres at Dodgers, Saturday, October 5, 8:38 p.m. ET, FS1

Game 2: Padres at Dodgers, Sunday, October 6, 8:03 p.m. ET, FS1

Game 3: Dodgers at Padres, Tuesday, October 8, time TBD, FOX/FS1

Game 4: Dodgers at Padres, Wednesday, October 9, time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)

Game 5: Padres at Dodgers, Friday, October 11, time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)

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Match play

Before Joe Musgrove’s injury, the odds were tipping significantly in the Padres’ favor. Their four-man rotation and four-man bullpen have the best neutral-park projections in the postseason, while the Dodgers are more in the middle of the pack, even with the deadline additions of Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech. In any given matchup, you would take Dylan Cease, and while Yoshinobu Yamamoto might be favored over Michael King, it would be close and the Padres would have a clear advantage over the rest of the Dodgers’ rotation.

Things get a little tighter after Musgrove’s injury. Perhaps this play is a combination of Martín Pérez and the bullpen, which doesn’t sound that far from Landon Knack and company on the other side. Except the foursome of Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada in the Padres’ bullpen is super legal. They combined for a 2.56 ERA during the regular season and a 30 percent strikeout rate to support that effort. In addition to those four, the Padres could field Bryan Hoeing and Adrian Morejon. As a right-left tandem, they could certainly be the glue that covers the hole left by Musgrove’s departure. Both have plenty of fastballs and excel in the secondary and have more than one inning under their belts – perfect center fielders.

Everyone is talking about the Dodgers’ on-field situation, but if they win, it will be largely because the two shortstops (Flaherty/Yamamoto) press and then someone like Knack steps up. The 27-year-old has a surprising drive considering the arm slot and has an exceptional slider – stranger things have happened.

Chalk, however, says the Padres’ staff is clearly better. —Eno Sarrisa

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Why the Dodgers will win

As glaring as the Dodgers’ problems are, however leaky their starting pitching is, and however many injuries they have absorbed, they still have the best record in baseball this season. They boast a lineup headlined by Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, and the level of firepower is hard to beat for any pitching staff on paper.

Ohtani is playing in his best form. Betts is motivated after a disastrous performance last October. This lineup could be as deep as any Dodgers have seen in 12 consecutive postseason seasons. And their bull will benefit from five days off, allowing the deep group to reset.

The Dodgers battled the Padres throughout the second half of the season, culminating in a series of games at Dodger Stadium in the final week of the regular season. The Padres had pitches ready. It didn’t matter because the Dodgers won two of three games in the series. —Fabian Ardaya

Why the Padres will win

The Padres entered October as the fashionable pick to win the National League pennant. Against a weakened opponent, the Braves did little to dispel the notion that they might be the most complete team in the postseason.

Even losing Joe Musgrove – potentially for the rest of the month and beyond – could provide an opportunity to showcase their depth. The Padres’ rotation still includes Michael King, who continued to climb toward the front line in his first playoff start; Dylan Cease, who can wield a non-hit weapon; Yu Darvish, who has been showing encouraging signs since returning after an extended absence; and Martín Pérez, who has exceeded expectations since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the loaded bull pen showed in September that it can cope with the heavy workload. The injury-plagued Dodgers would gladly trade their on-field situation for San Diego’s.

On the other side of the ball, the Padres have a ruthless attack that knocked down Atlanta lefty Max Fried early on after his blistering performance. No lineup provides the combination of contact, pressure and power like San Diego. In particular, Fernando Tatis Jr. can be the ultimate selling point. The star right-back was gone around two Octobers ago. Now the Dodgers seem vulnerable, Tatis is back in the thick of it all, and his flair for the dramatic – Tatis has hit 12 home runs in 34 career games at Dodger Stadium – could put the Padres on top. —Dennis Lin

Check back later for z-series predictions The Athletic’s MLB staff.

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Dodgers player in the spotlight: Shohei Ohtani, DH

Could it be someone else? These are the moments Ohtani signed for in Los Angeles and the moments he signed for with the Dodgers. His first season as a Dodger exceeded even the wildest expectations – 54 home runs, 59 stolen bases and perhaps a third MVP award ahead of him. While the Dodgers have insisted they don’t need Ohtani to carry them, how he responds to the challenge will have ramifications for the rest of the series. If the Padres don’t reach out to Ohtani, will he show enough restraint? Will his ability to use his feet be enough to spark offense among the rest of the squad? Will his presence make things easier for Betts and Freeman, the latter of whom is still dealing with a sprained right ankle?

Ohtani confirmed his position as the best player in the world during the regular season. His September bodes well for October, hitting .393 with a 1.225 OPS, 10 home runs and 16 stolen bases as he chased history and as the Dodgers chased the division crown.

Much ink has been spilled about Ohtani. Now the next chapter begins. — Ardaya

Padres Player Spotlight: Jurickson Profar, Los Angeles

On April 13, after the mistaken intent case, Dodgers catcher Will Smith called Profar “kind of irrelevant.” The next night at Chavez Ravine, Profar hit a double to give the Padres a decisive series victory. A few months later, at the age of 31, he became an All-Star for the first time. He finished the regular season with career-highs in home runs (24) and OPS (.839), combining familiar discipline at the plate with increased aggressiveness in his swing.

There are bigger stars in San Diego’s lineup, but Profar’s breakout season has seen him break through repeatedly at key moments and establish himself as the club’s No. 3 hitter. On and off the pitch, he remains a feisty leader, able to galvanize his teammates to achieve a common goal. The Padres have already won their regular season series against the Dodgers. Next goal: repeating the 2022 NLDS. —Lin

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The story of the tape

(*Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech’s stats reflect their time with the Dodgers, not the entire 2024 season.)

Check back later for z-series predictions Athletic MLB employees.

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Dodgers – a must-read

Dave Roberts Knows It’s Title or Loss for the Dodgers: ‘It’s Expected’

Freddie Freeman is starting the next chapter after his toughest season yet

Why the Dodgers’ NL West defense is ‘sweeter’

Shohei Ohtani showed off an absurd performance: “You’re speechless”

Padres must reads

Luis Arraez is both admired and vilified, but the Padres don’t question his value

Fernando Tatis Jr. returns to the postseason and it was worth the wait

The Padres have gained momentum since the All-Star break. Preparations started much earlier

Jackson Merrill’s surprising power has changed the course of the Padres’ current season

(Top photo: Shohei Ohtani: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images; Manny Machado: Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)