October 4 More Clouds Today Then Warm Weekend and Fall Chill Next Week

Friday October 4, 2024

Morning Report

We will end the week with a warm tone, but we need to deal with some areas of thick fog this morning. While the day will have more clouds, the afternoon should be warm in the 70s. A few spotty showers are possible this afternoon and tonight.

The weekend will remain warm, but the uncertainty of the cloud cover might make viewing the potential Northern Lights challenging. There will be a few nights to try and see them.

Next week brings us autumn chill while the tropical outlook still holds a 40% chance of development and possible flooding in South Florida.

Visibility Reports at 6 AM

 

Morning Surface Weather

The cluster of storms in the Mid-West is along a cold front moving our way. From the south, cloud cover will push in all day.

Live Satellite and Lightning Widget

I wanted to show you this view this morning to highlight the morning storms in the Mid West. That front is more active now than models suggested. It will fade, but bring us a chance for showers tonight.

Meanwhile there will be a flood of clouds from the South through the day.

 

Radar Simulation 8 AM to Midnight

This is looking more active inland with spotty showers. I expect this will be more pronounced later in the day and tonight.

Snapshot at 4 PM

Afternoon Temperatures

Aurora Forecast

The two strong solar storms are in process of hitting Earth through the weekend. The Space Weather Prediction Agency has posted these forecast Planetary Kp indexes.

 

 

In the Mid Atlantic we have our best chance in the mountains when above 7; in lower elevations when above 8.

Note: We would also need a clear sky as well as away from city lights to see.

 

EXTENDED AND TROPICAL FORECAST BELOW

 

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 4

Sunrise at 7:06 AM

Sunset at 6:44 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  51ºF

Record 31ºF in 1974 – The Earliest FREEZE on record in Baltimore

Normal High in Baltimore: 73ºF

Record 92ºF 1954

 

SATURDAY OCTOBER 5

Morning Low

Morning Fog Again Possible, then clearing.

 

Afternoon High

A pleasant weekend day with sun and warmer temps.

 

Looking Ahead

Sunday Night to Monday Night

A cold front may produce some thundershowers, then a fresh air mass will open us up to a much cooler air mass next week.

Jet Stream: Sunday Night to Thursday Night

Snapshot Wednesday Morning

We will have many areas with lows in the 40s.

Tropical Outlook From National Hurricane Center

As of this morning, this region in the Gulf of Mexico is back up to a 40% chance for ‘something’ to develop in the NEXT 7 DAYS! It will be challenged by strong upper-level winds that will push the moisture into Southern Florida.

ECMWF Model: Monday To Thursday

The push of moderate to heavy rain may eventually develop an organized Low Pressure on the Atlantic side of Florida…. After passing through.

 

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

This looks like a flooding event for South Florida, with 6 to 12 inches of rain over the next week.

7 Day Forecast

A warm weekend to enjoy before the surge of Fall chill next week.

 

 

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

 

SCHEDULE A WEATHER BASED STEM ASSEMBLY

Severe Weather: Storm Smart October and next spring

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ALSO SEE

Equinox NOT Equal Daylight… Yet

 

SECOND OF FOUR FULL SUPERMOONS

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THANK YOU:

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Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $104,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF