Trump will win the presidential election in 2024

On By Littum

The “world’s most accurate economist” predicts that Donald Trump will win the presidency and that Republicans will likely take full control of Congress on November 5.

Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, also says a Trump victory could boost the economy in the short term but poses long-term complications, especially with the rising deficit.

“Looking at various metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, the most likely outcomes right now are: (1) #Trump win (2) #GOP clean slate,” Barraud wrote the X.

Donald Trump is neck and neck with Kamala Harris in most polls, but is likely to win, according to “the world’s most accurate economist,” citing a number of factors. Stephen Yang

Barraud, 38, has been ranked as the best economic forecaster for the US economy in 11 of the past 12 years by Bloomberg – giving him the nickname “the world’s most accurate economist.”

The French expert said all signs point to a Trump victory and a GOP takeover of the Senate, and while the House of Representatives could be harder for Republicans to control, it looks like they will win.

But if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, there will likely be a continuation of the status quo divided control of Congress, Barraud said during an interview with Business Insider.

If Trump wins and for some reason control of Congress splits between the parties, he would see much of his domestic economic agenda stalled and would therefore likely focus on tariffs, something that could slow the US economy in the long term and hamper global growth. expert added.

In what Barraud considers the most likely scenario — a Republican celebration of the White House and Congress — he sees gross domestic product bumping between about 2.1% and 2.3% by 2025.

Christophe Barraud has been ranked by Bloomberg as the best forecaster for the US economy for 11 of the past 12 years. AFP via Getty Images

Regardless of who is in the White House, the U.S. economy is likely to hum along, at least in the short term, Barraud said.

Still, a big potential risk with Trump is that he cuts taxes without being able to pay for them and thus explodes the deficit, Barraud said.

He said he thinks the 10-year Treasury yield would initially jump to 4.5%, up from around 4.29% under Trump. From there, he believes it will tick up to around 5 per cent.

Vice President Kamala Harris has called herself the “underdog” in her race against Trump. AFP via Getty Images
Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the economist believes the US economy is likely to continue humming along in the near term. Reuters

Barraud believes that, overall, a Trump White House would mean that US GDP would likely exceed most consensus forecasts, which expect growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

Recent polls generally show the presidential race as a toss-up contest, even though Trump is leading RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polls and battleground state polls.

The so-called “Nostradamus” historian Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has predicted nine of the previous 10 elections, is betting on Harris to pull off the win.

Famed polling guru Nate Silver has indicated that his gut says Trump will win. There are only eight days until the election.