2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections V1 – Powered by PLV

On By Littum

It’s never too early to think about next season! Even if we don’t have a 2024 World Series champion, we do have our first version of Fantasy Baseball Projections ready for 2025 powered by Pitcher Lists PLV.

These projections incorporate past performance (with recent results weighted more heavily) and underlying metrics (specifically our PLV suite of metrics for hitters and pitchers). Each projected metric blends past performance and underlying components with unique weights and regression amounts to best estimate the next season’s performance. This has 3 main impacts:

  • Each metric has a different impact window for projection. Ex: Hitter Stolen Base Attempt rate is heavily dependent on the past year’s results, while Pitcher GB% uses a more even weighting over the past 3 seasons.
  • Each metric has a different location along the chance/skill spectrum when projecting. Ex: Pitcher HR/FB% is fairly noisy and has strongly declined toward league average for the following seasons, while K% is a better indicator of a player’s talent and is only mildly regressed.
  • Each projected metric has a different balance between using results and underlying metrics. Ex: Pitcher BB% results have a higher weighting for projection, while underlying metrics make up a larger proportion of projected K%.

In V1 of the projections, playing time is standardized: hitters got 600 PA, while starters got 160IP and relievers got 60IP (Starter/Reliever distinction is based on the estimated share of the game that was a start). This version also only includes players with a certain amount of MLB playing time last season (5+ IP for pitchers, 100+ PA for hitters). These restrictions will be reduced/removed in future versions and MiLB/international players will also be included in future versions.

You can access all of our 2025 fantasy baseball tools and projections (including future updates!) in the PL Pro Tools menu at the top of the page.

Copy this Google Sheet to access our 2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections V1:

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