Where the polls in the Harris-Trump race could be off: From Politiken’s desk

On October 30, 2024By Littum

Welcome to the online version of From the Political Deskan evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down how the polls fared in 2020 and whether they could again this time around. Plus, senior Washington correspondent Hallie Jackson sits down for a one-on-one interview with Kamala Harris.

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The polls were off in 2020. Will they be on again in 2024?

By Steve Kornacki

Four years ago at this time, polls were pointing to a relatively easy victory for Joe Biden. On this day in 2020, for example, he led Donald Trump by 7.9 percentage points nationally in the RealClearPolitics polling average and had advantages in all the swing states, with some polls even showing double-digit advantages for Biden.

Biden, of course, won the election, but by a smaller popular vote margin (4.5 points) and an exceedingly narrow Electoral College, where a total of about 43,000 votes in three states separated him by a 269-269 margin. tie that most likely would have led to a Trump victory in the House of Representatives.

The race looks much closer this time around, with Kamala Harris just 2 points ahead of Trump in our current national polling average and with results in all seven battleground states within 2 points. It may be that the race is as close as these numbers indicate and that the polling this year is more accurately capturing the status.

But the possibility of another voting miss hangs in the air. If there is a repeat of 2020 (and 2016) and the full extent of Trump’s support is missed again, then he is headed for a decisive victory. And if it’s Democratic support that’s somehow being underestimated this time around, it’s Harris who’s actually in good shape right now.

Why Trump’s support was previously underestimated is a matter of debate. But where it was missed is clear: states with large populations of white voters without four-year college degrees:

Wisconsin, where the polls fell the most, has the highest concentration of white residents without college degrees of any battleground state. Michigan has the second highest. This was also a key reason why national opinion polls were off.

Is it happening again? Here’s how the education gap among white voters looks in an average of current polls compared to what happened in 2020:

As you can see, Trump’s margin with non-college educated white voters ended up being higher than the polls suggested. But his current advantage of 27 points is almost equal to the 2020 result.

Read one way, this supports the idea that polls now largely capture Trump’s support among white voters without college degrees. Then again, given how tight the poll is, it wouldn’t have to be nearly as much this time to make a big difference.

From Harris’ point of view, part of the hope now is that polls are undercounting her support among what have long been core Democratic constituencies: black, Hispanic and young voters. Here’s how these groups break down now compared to what played out in 2020:

The concern for Harris, of course, is that her Hispanic support is far lower than Biden’s was, both in the 2020 polls and in the final election results. But much of Trump’s new Hispanic support comes from younger voters who have not participated at high levels in previous elections. If those voters end up sitting on the sidelines in this election, Harris could end up doing much better with Hispanics than the polls now indicate. It is also somewhat encouraging to her that Biden did better in the election with black voters than the polls had suggested. Harris needs this to happen again.

Harris also hopes that her support among women in the post-Dobbs environment is deeper than polls now find. While current polls show her with an 11-point advantage over women, Biden held an 18-point lead in the 2020 polls and ended up with a 15-point lead in the actual election.

Polls by gender have gone wild in this campaign, with some studies showing historically large gender differences and others relatively modest. That gives Harris an 11-point lead among women on average, but plenty of polls show a much larger advantage for her. If these polls are right, it could mean a Nov. 5 Harris show that is much stronger than the polls now suggest.

Harris says ‘of course’ her team is prepared if Trump declares victory before the votes are counted

By Alex Seitz-Wald

In an interview with NBC News’ Hallie Jackson on Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris said she is preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could declare victory before the votes are counted in next month’s election.

Sitting down at her official residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington, DC, Harris said her campaign is prepared for the possibility that Trump could try to undermine the election, but that she is focused on trying to beat him first.

“We will deal with election night and the days after as they come, and we have the resources and the expertise and the focus on that,” she said.

Pressed on the possibility that Trump could try to declare victory before the votes are counted and a winner is expected by the news networks and other media outlets, Harris said she is concerned.

“This is a person, Donald Trump, who tried to undo the free and fair election, who still denies the will of the people who incited a violent mob to attack the United States Capitol and 140 law enforcement officers were attacked, some killed. This is a serious matter,” Harris said, referring to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, where Trump supporters tried to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.

By Natasha Korecki, Carol E. Lee and Monica Alba

The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the way to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.

But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns in Kamala Harris’s campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.

Recent discussions have centered on the possibility that an anomaly could occur this year, with only part of the blue wall breaking its way. The talks have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “falls” to Donald Trump, while the other two states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy.

Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two .

Also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign had thought was one of its best insurance options may also be in jeopardy. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim his 19 electoral votes.

While North Carolina remains in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain a strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less optimistic about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamic said.

Voting guard: Election officials are taking increasingly drastic steps to ensure the safety of poll workers and voters, from donning bulletproof vests to placing snipers on rooftops to deploying drones for surveillance. Read more →
Don’t stop for ice cream: Amid heightened security concerns and mounting staffing problems within the Secret Service, Harris and Trump have been forced to curtail smaller events, such as drop-ins at diners or ice cream parlors. Read more →
Deep in the heart: Harris is scheduled to travel to Texas, which her campaign referred to as “ground zero of extreme Trump abortion bans,” on Friday. Read more →
Silver State Showdown: Republicans see an opening with Latino voters in Nevada, but Democrats tout advantages in consistent Spanish-language messaging and an active ground game. Read more →
Back on campus? Harris plans to spend election night in Washington, DC, where her campaign is eyeing her alma mater, Howard University, as a possible venue for her to speak from, according to seven people familiar with the planning. Read more →
The boys are back in town: Trump is set to appear on Joe Rogan’s podcast in his latest bid to appeal to young male voters. Read more →
Born to run: Bruce Springsteen will perform at Harris campaign rallies in Atlanta and Philadelphia. Read more →
Empire state of mind: After New York helped deliver the House to the Republicans in 2022, both parties see the way for the majority to run through the blue state again this time. Read more →
Book club: Usha Vance has been an almost constant presence alongside her husband, JD Vance, on the track, often with a book in hand. Her extensive reading list provides an insight into the life of someone who has otherwise been a quiet presence in the campaign. Read more →
Follow the live coverage from the campaign track →

That’s all from the Political Desk for now. If you have feedback – like or dislike – email us at [email protected]

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