Election 2024: Could Trump Win Nevada?

The Today, explained podcast takes a deep dive into the main themes of the 2024 election through the lens of seven battleground states. So far we have heard from the voters Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsinand North Carolinaand this week we turn to Nevada, where the economy is the top concern for voters.

With Election Day looming, the economy continues top of mind for voters — but perhaps nowhere more so than in Nevada, which has dealt with more than its share of economic headwinds over the past four years.

The Silver State has one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates at 5.6 percent, housing costs are skyrocketing, and groceries are among the most expensive in the country. Las Vegas, the state’s economic engine, is still reeling from pandemic shutdowns and loss of tourism and has an unemployment rate of 5.9 percent.

So as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump highlight theirs financial plans to voters, it may feel as if they are speaking directly to the people of Nevada. And for good reason — Nevada’s six electoral votes, which narrowly went to President Joe Biden in 2020, could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of this election.

Nevada will also play a role in deciding control of the U.S. Senate, as incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen faces Republican challenger Sam Brown in a critical run.

To understand the economic concerns of Nevada voters and get an early look at which way the election headwinds are blowing in the state, Today, explained host Sean Rameswaram spoke with Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the nonprofit news organization Nevada Independent, the only statewide outlet in Nevada.

Ralston has gained a reputation for following detailed early voting data and accurately predicting Nevada’s presidential primary over the past three presidential elections.

Below is an excerpt of the conversation, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so take a listen Today, explained wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

You have a reputation for calling things like that in Nevada. How does it look, a week out?

I have a pretty good prediction, but I don’t do it one week out or two weeks out. I do it three days before the election. We don’t have enough data to really make a prediction yet, but Republicans look better in the early count than they ever have. On the other hand, we recently (became) a mostly postal voting state. And then there’s some thinking that younger voters are going to vote later, that all the independents — and there’s been an explosion of them in Nevada — are going to go the way of the Democrats. So (Democrats) haven’t given up yet, but I think they’re worried.

Just from the way the two candidates have been campaigning, how important is Nevada in this 2024 presidential election?

We are one of the few battleground states. We don’t have as many electoral votes as Pennsylvania, but we really mirror the country demographically. Las Vegas is a demographic melting pot (with) a very large Hispanic population, a significant Asian and African American population, and a service worker economy that is both good for the Democrats and good for Trump, who likes to say, “I love the undereducated.”

What are the ill-educated out there most concerned with this election season?

Well, I wouldn’t call them that. But what they’re most worried about is what they’re most worried about everywhere else, the economy. We were disproportionately smashed by Covid. The Las Vegas Strip, the economic engine of Nevada, shut down for a few months. Many people lost their jobs. Unemployment was up to 30 percent. And while it’s come down a lot, it’s down to about 5 percent now — still one of the higher unemployment rates in the country.

But the supplement to that is housing. People have problems buying houses, renting houses, renting apartments. And there are still eviction carpenters. The laws here favor landlords. There is a process called summary dismissal, which Democrats sought to amendand it affects a lot of low-income voters.

And if you look at the economic plans or policy proposals that these two candidates are pushing, it almost feels like they’re speaking directly to Nevada voters, doesn’t it?

It seems both campaigns woke up a few weeks ago and saw the numbers that showed the housing problem was a big problem. So Trump basically took away from the Republican governor here who said they should just release more federal land. It’s just a matter of supply and demand. 87 percent of Nevada is federal landso that is one solution. And Harris has used more traditional Democratic rhetoric about helping people get into their homes and making sure people stay in their homes. But none of them have given very many details.

What about the plans that are more targeted, e.g. income? I know we have “no tax on tips” – both candidates are proposing it – which feels like a Nevada thing, a Vegas thing, a service industry thing.

Trump says a waitress — whether she’s real or mythical, it’s always hard to tell — said (to him), “Can you do something about this?” Whether it happened or not, I don’t know. But I think as far as a political pander goes, it’s a pretty smart play by the Trump campaign. They suddenly put this out there. They’ve even taken it so far as to create internet memes urging people to sign their checks, “No tax on tips.”

The Harris campaign initially balked at this, but later jumped on board saying it was a good idea. And suddenly our Democratic Senators and Congress are on board too. Has this cut into Trump’s favor? I don’t know. But I will tell you this, in an election that could be very close – some people think it could be as close as 5 or 10,000 votes out of about 1.3 or 4 million cast – every little bit can make a difference, and it is going to be difficult to say what the one problem was.

If Trump actually succeeds and wins Nevada, what do you think that will have said about his campaign, about his appeal (this year), when he lost there in 2016 and in 2020?

But he didn’t lose much. He lost by two and a half points. This means that the state has changed it for the first time in two decades. In 2022, we elected a Republican governor. (If Trump wins the state), Republicans will say they have a chance in Nevada, that the so-called Harry Reid machine is not all-powerful, that it can be beaten in a presidential election. All these things will be said.

And if Harris wins, it dictates that the opposite will be true, that this will still be the Harry Reid state, the machine that Harry built.

I think the narrative will be that even in adverse economic times, even in times where the demographics seem to have shifted a little bit right, that the machine still knows how to get its voters to the polls, whether it’s early personal voting or mail. ballots or on Election Day, just enough to keep the state in Democratic hands for every cycle since 2008.

Do you think there are a lot of voters out there in Nevada who are still trying to figure this one out, who are still undecided, people who we know will show up to vote on the fifth, but who are still waiting to hear from these candidates? And if so, what do you think will push them in either direction?

Who are these people who might be undecided in this race at this point, right? Most polls show around 5 percent or so undecided. Some polls put them at 7 or 8 percent. So I think every little bit can matter. Will these service workers, these workers who, when I first started covering politics, were called “Reagan Democrats,” will they go after Trump?

These plans, such as “no tax on tips”, more housing, freeing up federal land, are they breaking through?

If it’s a very close race here, which it could be, it’s very hard to pinpoint what the tipping point would have been.