FIRST WARNING: Rain likely on Halloween

On October 30, 2024By Littum

BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) – The WAFB Weather Team is issuing a first alert for Thursday (Halloween).

The warning isn’t so much a reflection of a severe weather concern, but rather an added warning that rain could affect some of your Halloween plans.

WAFB First Alert Forecast - Tuesday, Oct. 29 — WAFB First Alert Forecast – Tuesday, Oct. 29(WAFB)

After weeks of mostly dry weather, the forecast offers welcome relief from our developing drought.

Unfortunately, the timing isn’t the best, with rain chances expected to peak on Halloween. The culprit behind the elevated rain chances will be an approaching cold front, although the front is not actually expected to pass through our area.

Thursday may start with a few single showers, but scattered to numerous showers and t-storms are expected in the afternoon. The big question – what about trick-or-treating? Guidance has been mixed on the outlook for Thursday night, though I’m cautiously optimistic that it won’t be a complete washout.

The GRAF model (as of Tuesday evening) shows some significant breaks in the rain developing at 17.00-18.00, as trick-or-treating is underway in most areas.

In contrast, the European continues to be more aggressive both with the duration of the rain and with totals.

So far I have about a 50% chance of rain at 17.00, which slowly falls for the rest of the evening. Confidence is much higher in terms of temperatures and a mild evening is expected in the area.

So what should you do at this point? I’d recommend keeping trick-or-treating plans for the time being, with an evening tilt that isn’t a complete washout. But understand that even if it’s not a complete washout, there may still be rain in the mix. Have a ‘Plan B’ ready if it rains at the time you go out with your children.

Looking ahead, good rain chances continue into Friday before dry weather returns for the weekend. And don’t forget to ‘fall back’ this weekend as Daylight Saving Time officially ends at 2am on Sunday. Set the clock back an hour before it’s Saturday. It is also a good time to change the batteries in smoke and carbon monoxide detectors.

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