Here’s who is leading in the most important election campaigns in 2024

Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer – the candidates are tied at 48% Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls released on Wednesday and it is 49%-49% in a CBS/YouGov polland while Trump is up 47%-46% in one Quinnipiac poll and 50%-49% if Fox News eliminates third parties, Harris has a 49%-48% lead in a large Cooperative selection survey survey (3,685 respondents). Monmouth found Trump is up 47%-46% among all registered voters, but Harris leads 48%-47% among people who vote in most elections. Overall, Trump leads Harris by 0.4 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Michigan: Harris leads 48%-46% in one Fox News poll (though tied at 49% without third parties), and Harris is up 51%-46% in the CES poll (2,336 respondents) and 48%-43% in CNN/SSRS pollwhile Trump leads 49%-48% in one Emerson study published Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up one point in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

North Carolina: Trump leads Harris 49%-47% according to Fox News (or 50%-49% without third parties), and he’s up 50%-48% in surveys released this past week by CES, Marist and Emerson College. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with an advantage of 1.1 points.

Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% over Trump in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in one Marquette votewhile Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson map out and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac vote. Harris is up 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEights average.

Nevada: Harris leads Trump 51%-47% in CES map out (933 respondents), while Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS map out released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points), and Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll out October 23 (margin of error 5). Harris is up 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEights poll average.

Arizona: Trump is up 51%-47% in the CES poll (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist vote released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll this week (margin) of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.2 points in FiveThirtyEights poll average.

Georgia: Trump has a 51%-46% lead over Harris in the CES poll (2,663 respondents), reflecting his lead in most polls, though they are tied at 49% in a Marist vote (margin of error 3.9), and Trump leads by a narrower 49.9%-48.4% in a Bloomberg poll (margin of error 3), while a Washington Post-Schar vote (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.