Diontae Johnson traded to Baltimore Ravens: Fantasy football fallout

Diontae Johnson’s time in Carolina turned out to be nothing more than a layover on his way to playing with an AFC contender. Just months after being traded from the Steelers to the Panthers, Johnson is headed back to the AFC North for a fifth and sixth round with the Baltimore Ravens. It’s an extremely cheap deal for a Ravens team that ranks second in both EPA per. game and success rate.

No one can blame a team as good as Baltimore for pushing their chips into the middle in an effort to top the streak, but it’s not like they hurt hitters.

What Diontae Johnson brings to the Ravens

Zay Flowers is having a strong sophomore season, and they’re just now starting to turn him loose on offensive routes, minimizing some of the Mickey Mouse screen work the Ravens overdid in Weeks 1 and 2. Rashod Bateman is finally healthy and gives them stability play in the X receiver slot. He ranks fourth in the NFL in both EPA per targets and percentage of catches going for a first down or touchdown, according to TruMedia. Mark Andrews’ season is stabilizing. He and Isaiah Likely have given this team big moments at the tight end position.

The problem for any of these guys is the overall volume. Neither will consistently push for eight-plus targets on a weekly basis, both because of the surrounding pieces in the passing game and Baltimore’s commitment to its strong rushing attack. Adding Diontae Johnson to the mix creates an even tighter target squeeze.

There is no doubt that Johnson brings a dimension to this team that none of the others provide. He is the best pure separator against man and press coverage on the perimeter. The Ravens have seen Cover 1 at the eighth-highest rate this season, according to Fantasy Points Data, so you need one-on-one man-beaters on the outside. Bateman has done well on those looks this season, hence his per-catch efficiency, but Johnson gives them another proven body that can do it at high volume.

There is almost no chance. Johnson is close to matching his goal of 27.1% per route from Weeks 1 through 8 with the Panthers in Baltimore. He’ll also likely dig into Flowers’ 27% goal share and increase the volatility of the weekly production of Bateman and Andrews.

This trade is a really good move for the Ravens offense and Johnson brings separation skills that any team, especially a playoff contender, could use. It’s just hard to make the math work.

What do we think of the Panthers’ remaining pass catchers?

As for Carolina, there are still some interesting young pieces on the offense, but it’s hard to imagine anyone making a run for fantasy glory. The offense ranks 31st in the EPA per game; even the infamous Andy Dalton era, which helped prop up Johnson, sputtered to an end. At this point, the Panthers are likely close to returning Bryce Young just to see if there is something to mine from the young passer. Regardless, rookie receivers Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker are the names to know.

Legette was and is a project receiver, but I love the way the Panthers have used him. They haven’t asked him to win at X-receiver on vertical routes just because he’s big and fast. Instead, they’ve deployed him off the line and had him run over-the-middle routes that best suit his current skill level. That’s good coaching.

Fellow rookie Coker is an undrafted free agent that I’ve been really impressed with on film. He is an advanced technician with a good feel for zone coverage. Coker has taken 70.5% of his snaps from the slot this season and has earned playing time. Maybe Adam Thielen will come back and take the job, but with Carolina clearly looking to the future and not worried about the 2024 results, it doesn’t make sense. Especially not with Coker giving them good reps.

Elsewhere on the roster, veteran receiver David Moore, who has familiarity with Seattle and Tampa Bay’s Dave Canales, stepped into Johnson’s vacated X-receiver role last week and led the team in routes. He’s not a scorer, so he’ll just open up concepts for Legette and Coker. Former second-rounder Jonathan Mingo is falling down the depth chart, and his skills overlap too much with the 2024 rookies.

The passing of the Panthers does not seem to be able to provide the soil necessary to grow good fruit. However, these names are good to know if something drastically changes.