Here’s who is leading in the most important election campaigns in 2024

Nevada: Trump is ahead 48%-47% in Nevada, according to a CNN/SSRS poll map out released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points), Harris is up 48.8%-48.3% in a Bloomberg poll out Wednesday (margin of error 5), but Trump is ahead 47%-46% in an AARP vote released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), and they are tied at 48% in a Washington Post-Schar poll released Oct. 21 (margin of error 4.8). Harris leads by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Arizona: Harris leads 48%-47% in CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.4), Trump leads 50%-49% in a Marist vote released Thursday (margin of error 3.7), and Trump is ahead by three points – 49%-46% – in the Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), but Bloomberg reports an actual tie 49.1%-48.8% Harris lead, within the three-point margin of error. Trump is up 1.8 points in FiveThirtyEights poll average.

Michigan: Trump leads Harris 49%-48% in one Emerson study released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), while Harris’ 49.6%-46.5% edge marks the largest lead of any state polled by Bloomberg, but it’s still within the four-point margin of error — and it matches Harris’ 49% -46% lead in Quinnipiac poll (margin of error 2.9) released October 23. Harris is up 0.7 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

Georgia: Trump and Harris are tied at 49% in Marist vote (margin of error 3.9), and Trump leads 49.9%-48.4% in Bloomberg poll (margin of error 3) and 47%-43% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution vote of likely voters out Tuesday (margin of error 3.1), while the Washington Post-Schar vote (margin of error 4.5) found Harris ahead 51%-47%. Trump leads by 1.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.

North Carolina: Trump is up 50%-48% in Marist vote-within the 3.6-point margin of error – and he’s up 50% to 48% at an Emerson College vote released Thursday (also within the 3.1-point margin of error), while the Bloomberg poll showed him leading 49.6%-48.5% (margin of error 4) and the Washington Post-Schar poll had him ahead 50%-47 % (margin of error) 3.9). FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Trump with an advantage of 1.2 points.

Wisconsin: The state is about as close as it gets, as Trump is up 49% to 48% in Emerson map out (margin of error 3.4), 48.3%-48% in the Bloomberg poll (margin of error 4) and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Wednesday Quinnipiac vote (margin of error 2.9), while Harris has a 50%-47% lead in the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.6). Harris is up 0.1 points in FiveThirtyEights average.

Pennsylvania: Trump leads 49% to 48% in Emerson vote (margin of error 3.4), while Bloomberg found Harris up 50%-48.2% (margin of error 3), and she had a 49%-47% advantage in the Washington Post-Schar poll (margin of error 4.6). Still, Trump leads Harris by 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average.